NATO Faces Persistent Nuclear Threat from Putin, Says Stoltenberg

Intelligence received by NATO in autumn 2022 indicated that the probability of Russia employing a nuclear weapon had risen to between 10 and 25 percent. The concern centred on the possible use of “tactical” nuclear weapons—devices intended to destroy battlefield forces but still capable of killing thousands instantly and producing long-term radiation. Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary-general at the time, said the alliance treated the threat as a genuine option the Kremlin was considering.

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The threat emerged months after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. Early in the conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asked NATO for a no-fly zone to protect Kyiv. Stoltenberg described the request as “the hardest conversation” he had, noting that providing air defence would have required shooting down Russian aircraft and could have triggered a direct NATO-Russia clash. Consequently, NATO refrained from a no-fly zone, a decision Stoltenberg later called a “step too far.”

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Stoltenberg’s own Cold-War experience—sheltering from simulated Soviet fallout as a conscript in 1979—shaped his view that complacency over nuclear threats is dangerous. He argues that the West’s fear of a nuclear confrontation helped prevent NATO from taking more aggressive actions early in the war.

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• Nuclear use likelihood: 10 – 25 percent (NATO intelligence, autumn 2022).

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• Russian battlefield losses: Stoltenberg estimates Russia loses around 1,000 soldiers per day, dead or severely wounded.

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• NATO expansion: Sweden and Finland joined the alliance during Stoltenberg’s tenure, extending NATO’s front line against Russia.

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He stresses that maintaining Article 5 credibility—treating an attack on any member as an attack on all—is the best deterrent against further Russian aggression, especially toward the Baltic states.

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• “Nato sent a very strong message,” — Jens Stoltenberg

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• “It was among the most difficult and the hardest conversations I had,” — Jens Stoltenberg

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• “It has never been in the interest of Nato to provide our potential adversary the privilege of knowing exactly when they violate Article 5,” — Jens Stoltenberg

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• NATO vs. Russian narrative: NATO intelligence points to a rising nuclear-use probability, while the Russian embassy denies any intention to confront the alliance and frames NATO’s actions as escalatory.

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• Casualty figures: The estimate of 1,000 Russian soldiers lost per day comes from Stoltenberg’s public statements; independent verification is not provided in the sources.

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• Future intentions: Putin’s claim of being ready to use “all weapons” lacks independent confirmation, and NATO’s assessment of Russia’s willingness to employ tactical nukes remains an intelligence judgment rather than a publicly documented plan.

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These divergent accounts highlight the difficulty of gauging the true scale of the nuclear threat and underscore the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the conflict’s trajectory.

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