Full Breakdown
Australia’s Bushfire Outlook: Rising Costs and a Call for “Smoke Jumpers”
By Drooid · · How we work
Report Highlights a New Fire-fighting Strategy
On October 22, 2026, Emergency Leaders for Climate Action (ELCA) released *Prepare or Pay: Counting the Cost of Climate-Fuelled Bushfires*. The study warns that fire seasons have lengthened by 21 % since 1979 and projects an average economic burden of $6 billion per year over the next 30 years—nearly three times earlier estimates. Former ACT Emergency Services Authority commissioner Major General Peter Dunn recommends adopting North-American “smoke jumpers,” parachuting firefighters into remote fire grounds, alongside expanded satellite, drone and AI detection.
Climate Change Extends and Intensifies Fire Seasons
The ELCA analysis links longer, more ferocious bushfires to warming temperatures and a stronger El Niño expected this summer. Southeast Australia now experiences 14 more extreme fire-weather days per year than before 1998, and fire seasons are 20 % longer than in 1979. Extreme fire-generated storms have risen sixfold, and dry-lightning strikes in southern forests increased by 50 % between 2000-2016 and the preceding two decades.
Quantifying the Economic Impact
- Annual average cost: $6.04 billion (2025-26 to 2055-56).
- Total projected cost (2025-2055): $181.7 billion.
- Major-event average cost: $16.1 billion, occurring every four years until 2040 and every three years thereafter.
The modelling assumes a Black-Summer-scale disaster would cost $27.7 billion in today’s dollars and recur roughly once every 30 years. Janice Lee of the Climate Council notes that previous estimates placed the national bushfire cost at $2.2 billion per year, highlighting the impact of updated frequency and severity assumptions.
Shifts in Fire-fighting Resources
Volunteer numbers have fallen sharply: the 2023-24 season recorded 10,336 fewer volunteers than four years earlier, while full-time personnel rose by only 433 positions. Rural Fire Service brigades, such as one near Harden, NSW, report a drop from 48 to 12 volunteers, limiting direct attack capacity. Dunn argues that smoke jumpers could bolster recruitment, citing the United States National Interagency Fire Centre’s 450 permanent smoke-jumpers and British Columbia’s ?80 “para-attack” fighters annually. He also calls for Australia to acquire at least 12 aerial tankers, noting the nation currently operates a single tanker in New South Wales.
Official Statements & Responses
Peter Dunn emphasizes the need for rapid detection and immediate response: early satellite, drone and infrared monitoring must be paired with “crack teams” capable of swift on-ground action. Former Fire and Rescue NSW commissioner Greg Mullins stresses that the burning of coal, oil and gas is “supercharging bushfire seasons,” and points to the ELCA report’s finding that better preparation could prevent $600 million in annual losses and protect over 5,600 jobs. Mullins also highlights the federal Disaster Ready Fund, urging more targeted support for household resilience.
Implications for Policy and Communities
The report’s cost projections and resource gaps suggest that without substantial adaptation—expanding aerial capacity, integrating advanced detection technologies, and adopting smoke-jumper units—Australia may face escalating economic and social disruption. Communities in high-risk zones, now encompassing 5.6 million households, could benefit from reinforced building standards and infrastructure upgrades, as advocated by Mullins.
What Lies Ahead
ELCA’s recommendations call for immediate government action to fund new aircraft, develop smoke-jumper training programs, and refine climate-adaptation strategies. The timing aligns with an anticipated strong El Niño, underscoring the urgency of implementing these measures before the upcoming fire season intensifies.