Texas Senate Race: Talarico-Paxton Contest with a Libertarian Wild Card

The 2024 Texas Senate race has narrowed to a virtual dead heat between Democrat James Talarico, a state representative from Austin, and Republican incumbent Attorney General Ken Paxton. A University of Houston Hobby School poll shows Talarico leading Paxton 48 percent to 46 percent, while Libertarian Ted Brown is drawing roughly 3 percent of the vote. Brown’s share could match the two-point margin separating the major-party candidates, making his candidacy a potential spoiler in the November 3 election.

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Talarico seeks the first statewide Democratic victory in Texas in more than three decades. Paxton entered the race after a contentious primary that ousted longtime U.S. Senator John Cornyn and carries a history of impeachment by the Texas House and resolved securities-fraud charges. Brown, a 66-year-old retired insurance adjuster, has run for statewide office before, receiving over 267,000 votes in his 2024 Senate bid—a record for a Texas Libertarian candidate. Analysts note that Libertarian voters in Texas tend to be dissatisfied Republicans rather than cross-party defectors.

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• University of Houston Hobby School poll: Talarico 48 %, Paxton 46 %, Brown 3 % (low single digits).

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• In Harris County, more than two-thirds of Brown supporters favored the Republican county-judge candidate, while about one-in-10 backed the Democratic candidate.

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• Political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus estimates that a shift of roughly 100,000 votes could decide the race.

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• Brown’s prior Senate run garnered 267,000 votes, the highest Libertarian total in a Texas statewide contest.

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Brown acknowledges that his presence may draw blame if the election is decided below 50 percent, saying the loser will likely point to his vote share. Political scientist Mark Jones describes Brown as a refuge for Republicans unwilling to vote for Paxton or Talarico, noting that Libertarian voters pull far more from Republicans than Democrats. Brandon Rottinghaus cautions against assuming every Libertarian voter is a Republican defector, emphasizing the distinction between partisan dissatisfaction and outright defection.

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• “Brown will be a refuge for Texas Republicans who cannot bring themselves to vote for Ken Paxton or for James Talarico, and don't want to leave the first spot on the ballot blank,” — Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University

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• “I have as many Talarico supporters and Paxton supporters each saying that I'm taking votes from their guy and urging me to drop out,” — Ted Brown

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• “In Texas, Libertarian candidates pull far more from Republicans than they do from Democrats,” — Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University

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• “Brown's candidacy illustrates the difference between partisan dissatisfaction and partisan defection,” — Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston

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• “In a close race like this cycle, even the shift of 100,000 votes could make the difference,” — Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston

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