Full Breakdown
Trump’s Approval Rating Plummets as Midterms Loom
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Record-Low Approval Across Multiple Polls
In the weeks before the November 3 congressional elections, national surveys show President Donald Trump’s job approval hovering between 31 % and 40 %, the lowest level recorded in either of his terms. Disapproval rates are consistently above 55 %, with several polls indicating that more than two-thirds of respondents view his performance negatively. The decline coincides with heightened voter concern over the economy, gasoline prices, and the administration’s proposed election-monitoring strategy.
Background & Context
Trump entered his second term with approval ratings near the mid-40 % range. Since early 2025, an Iran-related military strike, surging gas prices, and a federal plan to deploy roughly 1,000 Department of Justice observers to polling sites have eroded public confidence. The administration has also floated the possibility of stationing Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents at voting locations, prompting grassroots groups in Arizona to train volunteers to monitor ICE activity and protect voters.
Data & Statistics
- Reuters/Ipsos: 31 % approve, 68 % disapprove; 47 % would vote Democrat on a generic ballot, 35 % Republican.
- CNBC All-America Economic Survey: 40 % approve, 59 % disapprove; economic approval at 34 % (down from 38 % in July).
- NPR/Strength-in-Numbers: 34 % approve, 62 % disapprove; 52 % of likely voters prefer a Democratic congressional candidate.
- Forbes aggregate: Approval rates between 32 % and 36 %; disapproval consistently above 60 %.
- Stockton University Hughes Center (New Jersey): 31 % approve, 64 % disapprove among state voters; 57 % say the election outcome will be accurate, down from 68 % a year earlier.
Official Statements & Responses
President Trump defended his election-security posture, telling supporters in South Carolina that “Darline Graham will vote to keep your income rising, your prices falling, your borders strong and America more respected than ever before.”
Verbatim Quotes
- “We got there not because of independents or Democrats getting more sour — it's because Republicans have,” — Micah Roberts, Public Opinion Strategies
- “ICE is in our neighborhoods and even people who are citizens are afraid that they’ll be taken if they go to vote,” — César Fierros, Lucha
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The polls differ on the exact magnitude of Trump’s decline. Reuters/Ipsos records a 31 % approval figure, while CNBC reports 40 % approval and a 34 % economic approval rating. NPR places approval at 34 % with a 62 % disapproval rate. Forbes aggregates several surveys ranging from 32 % to 36 % approval. These variations stem from differing sample sizes, weighting methods, and question wording, leaving a precise national approval figure uncertain.
What’s Next
The Justice Department’s observer deployment is slated for the November 3 midterms. State and local election officials have signaled that any federal agents who exceed legal proximity limits will be removed. Voter-confidence surveys indicate that confidence in election integrity has slipped, especially among Democrats, suggesting that the upcoming election will serve as a de-facto referendum on Trump’s agenda.
