Full Breakdown
Israel’s 2026 Election: Gadi Eisenkot’s Bid to Unseat Benjamin Netanyahu
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event – Contest for the Premiership
Israel will vote on October 27 to decide whether long-time prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu retains power or is replaced by former chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the centrist Yashar party. Polls close at 10 p.m. local time on October 28. Voters see the choice as continuity under Netanyahu versus a “not-Netanyahu” alternative offered by Eisenkot.
Background & Context – War Aftermath and Political Landscape
The Hamas attack on October 7, 2023 sparked a three-year war in Gaza and spill-over conflicts. Netanyahu’s government has been criticised for its war handling, settlement expansion and ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions. Eisenkot, whose son and two nephews were killed in Gaza, left the emergency war cabinet in 2024 and founded Yashar, positioning himself as a unifying figure after the “forever wars.”
Timeline
- Oct 7 2023 – Hamas attacks trigger war; Eisenkot joins emergency cabinet.
- 2024 – Eisenkot quits the cabinet, accusing Netanyahu of lacking a post-war plan.
- Early 2026 – Eisenkot launches Yashar and begins campaigning.
- Oct 27 – Election day.
- Oct 28 – Polls close; results expected shortly after.
Data & Statistics – Poll Projections and Seat Estimates
Polls project Yashar to win 20-23 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, while Likud is expected to secure 19-21. Combined with right-wing allies, the Netanyahu bloc could reach 49-51 seats; the anti-Netanyahu bloc could attain 52-55, still short of the 61 needed for a majority.
Official Statements & Responses – Candidate Positions
Eisenkot pledges a state inquiry into the October 7 failures, a larger army, and an “equal draft” ending ultra-Orthodox exemptions and requiring Arab citizens to perform national service. He also proposes re-introducing administrative detention for violent settlers and returning Israel to “the community of nations.” Netanyahu frames the election as a binary choice between his leadership and “Palestinian statehood,” using the slogan “right or Palestine.” President Donald Trump has endorsed Netanyahu as a “Great Warrior Prime Minister.”
Criticism & Opposition – Views on Netanyahu’s Governance
Dr Naomi Dar, speaking at a Modi’in rally, called Israel’s international standing a “big failure,” blaming government policies for diplomatic isolation. Prof Sternhell warned that Netanyahu’s supporters “move into action” when they feel besieged, suggesting a hard-line response to any defeat.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps – Coalition Uncertainty
Analysts differ on whether Arab-led parties such as the United Arab List or the Joint List will join an anti-Netanyahu coalition. Some forecasts see them providing the margin needed for a majority; others note key Arab parties have ruled out participation in a government led by either major bloc. The exact post-election coalition remains unclear.
What’s Next – Post-Election Scenarios
If Eisenkot wins a plurality but lacks a majority, he has indicated willingness to form a minority government, potentially relying on Arab-led parties for a parliamentary safety net. President Isaac Herzog has signaled a preference for a “national unity” government to avoid another round of elections. The Knesset’s first actions could include reversing Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul, establishing a commission of inquiry into the October 7 attacks, and barring individuals under criminal indictment from serving as prime minister. The outcome will shape Israel’s domestic reforms, security policy, and strained international relations.