Full Breakdown
Nationals Leader Matt Canavan Poised for House Move as Michelle Landry Retires
By Drooid · · How we work
The Immediate Development
On October 23, 2026, veteran Nationals MP Michelle Landry announced she will not re-contest the Queensland seat of Capricornia at the 2028 federal election. Her retirement opens a vacancy that could allow Nationals leader Matt Canavan to leave the Senate and contest the lower-house seat.
Background & Context
Landry has held Capricornia since 2013, turning a historically Labor-leaning electorate into a safe LNP seat. She serves as the Nationals’ chief whip and has been credited with securing regional infrastructure projects such as the Rockhampton Hospital car park and the Rookwood Weir.
Canavan, elected to the Senate in 2013 and elevated to Nationals leader in March 2026, currently occupies the second spot on the LNP Senate ticket for Queensland. Polling suggests his Senate position is vulnerable if One Nation maintains its surge.
Data & Statistics
- The Guardian Essential poll shows One Nation at 25 % of the primary vote nationwide, Labor at 29 %, and the Coalition at a historic low of 22 %.
- A 2025 electorate poll recorded Landry’s primary vote at 36.56 %, Labor’s at 31.9 %, and One Nation’s at 15.5 %; her two-party-preferred result was 55.8 % to Labor’s 43.41 %.
Official Statements & Responses
- Michelle Landry framed her retirement as a personal decision, emphasizing the need for family time.
- Matt Canavan said he would “do whatever it takes” to protect the party’s representation, indicating willingness to contest Capricornia if required.
- Kos Samaras, director at polling group Redbridge, warned that Canavan faces a “0 % chance” of retaining his Senate seat under current One Nation polling.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I think they need to pull their heads in,” — Michelle Landry
- “He goes from a 0% chance of being elected as a senator, to potentially winning [in Capricornia],” — Kos Samaras
- “When I look at people that move into an area to run for a political position, it doesn’t usually end well,” — Michelle Landry
- “I stand by my record of over six billion dollars in …” — Ms Landry
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polling figures for One Nation vary: the Guardian Essential poll lists a 25 % primary vote, while a later Newspoll cited by ABC places the party at 28 % ahead of the 2028 election. No definitive projection exists for the final seat distribution in Capricornia, and internal LNP preselection timelines remain undisclosed.
What’s Next
The LNP must conduct a preselection process for Capricornia before the 2028 federal election. If Canavan vacates his Senate spot, the party will need to select a new candidate for the second Queensland Senate position. One Nation’s potential candidacy, possibly involving national director James Ashby, remains unconfirmed.