Full Breakdown
Andy Burnburn’s First 100 Days: Poll Results, Public Expectations, and the Upcoming Budget Test
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Findings of the YouGov 100-Day Poll
A YouGov survey of 5,394 adults conducted on 22 October 2026 measured how voters rate Prime Minister Andy Burnham against their prior expectations. 23 % say the new PM has met their positive expectations, while 12 % of those who expected him to do well are now disappointed. An equal 23 % say he has performed as poorly as they anticipated, and 14 % of low-expectation voters say he has exceeded those expectations.
A separate YouGov analysis of the same data highlighted that 35 % of respondents had originally expected Burnham to be “good,” of whom 12 % are now disappointed, whereas 37 % expected disappointment and most say the outcome matches their low hopes.
Background & Context
Andy Burnham assumed the premiership after Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation, inheriting a brief “Burnham bounce” that lifted Labour ahead of Reform UK and the Conservatives. The bounce has since faded, and polling experts warn the early surge may be ending. Burnham’s first major policy test arrives with Chancellor John Healey’s budget, scheduled for the day after Burnham’s 100th day in office.
Timeline
- 22 October 2026 – YouGov completes its 5,394-adult survey.
- 19 October – Poll results show Labour three points ahead of the Conservatives and four points ahead of Reform UK.
- Approaching 100 days – Burnham’s 100th day in Downing Street (exact date not disclosed).
- Day after 100 days – Chancellor John Healey to unveil the first post-Burnham budget.
Data & Statistics
- 23 % of voters say Burnham met positive expectations (YouGov).
- 12 % of those who expected him to do well are now disappointed (YouGov).
- 23 % say he performed as poorly as they thought (YouGov).
- 14 % of low-expectation voters say he exceeded those expectations (YouGov).
- Recent polls place Labour’s overall approval at 27 %, Reform UK at 22 %, and the Conservatives at 21 %.
- Support among 18- to 24-year-olds rose from 14 % to 32 % under Burnham; Reform UK holds only 7 % in that age group.
Official Statements & Responses
YouGov data journalist Dylan Difford noted that the poll’s split views fall along partisan lines, with Labour, Liberal-Democrat and Green supporters more positive, while Conservative and Reform voters see Burnham meeting their low expectations.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The two YouGov presentations differ in how they segment “expected-good” versus “expected-bad” respondents (23 % vs. 35 % expecting good, 14 % vs. 37 % expecting disappointment). The poll does not disclose the size of the “don’t know” segment, leaving overall voter certainty unclear.
What’s Next
Chancellor John Healey is set to deliver his first budget the day after Burnham’s 100th day, a test that analysts say will shape public satisfaction ahead of the next electoral cycle. The budget is expected to address pressures on public services, including pay rises for doctors and nurses, while operating within the fiscal constraints highlighted at the International Monetary Fund meeting.