Full Breakdown
Escalating Negative Advertising in the Maine Senate Race
By Drooid · · How we work
Surge in Hostile Campaign Spots
In the final weeks before Election Day, negative television ads have dominated the Maine U.S. Senate contest between incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson. Analysis of AdImpact data shows that 88 % of broadcast spending in the seven-day period ending the Sunday before the election was devoted to attack ads, up from below two-thirds in early August when Jackson first secured the Democratic nomination. Both parties have intensified personal attacks: the Senate Leadership Fund’s “Crook and a Creep” spot references a Washington Free Beacon report on cell-tower land, while a Democratic ad titled “Sides With Trump” blames Collins for Medicaid cuts passed under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Advertising Spend and Negative Content
Republican super-PACs and nonprofits have booked roughly $126 million in advertising to defend Collins, much of it from undisclosed donors. Jackson’s allies have shifted from introductory messaging to a strategy in which more than 80 % of their broadcast budget now funds negative spots, including a “More Expensive” ad linking Collins to rising heating-oil costs and a “Taxin’ Troy” piece accusing Jackson of inflating electric rates. Despite the spending surge, Decision Desk HQ’s latest model gives Jackson a modest edge, forecasting a 54 % chance of victory for him and 46 % for Collins.
Official Statements & Responses
Collins publicly disavowed a new radio jingle from the Senate Leadership Fund that labels Jackson a “creep,” emphasizing that federal law prohibits her from coordinating with the super-PAC. Jackson’s deputy campaign manager, Dan Gottlieb, demanded an apology, asserting that Collins “spread these disgusting personal attacks.” Lana Pelletier, Jackson’s partner, condemned the attacks on her family, saying her family “deserved the same” respect Collins seeks for herself.
Verbatim Quotes
- “If he’ll screw his own family, he’ll screw yours too.” — Republican Sen. Susan Collins
- “I’m not going to bring up the fact that the mother of his two children is his second cousin,” — Republican Sen. Susan Collins
- “The other thing that he has said that is just plain wrong is that I somehow am responsible for the Medicaid cuts in the big beautiful bill,” — Republican Sen. Susan Collins
- “This race is unique in Maine history in the number of personal attacks,” — Republican Sen. Susan Collins
Conflicting Forecasts
Decision Desk HQ’s forecast cited by Bangordailynews assigns Jackson a 54 % chance of winning, while Rawstory reports a 56 % probability for Jackson and a 44 % chance for Collins. Both figures stem from the same modeling firm but differ in the published percentages.