Full Breakdown
Arab Parties Poised to Tip Israel’s October 27 Election
By Drooid · · How we work
Election Stakes: Balance of Power in a Tight Race
Israel’s parliamentary election is set for October 27. The right-wing bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a centre-left opposition bloc. Both are projected to fall short of a majority, leaving the 14-seat Arab bloc—Ra’am and the Joint List—as potential kingmakers. Polls suggest the Arab parties could win up to 15 seats, enough to bridge the gap.
Background: Arab Representation and Recent Tensions
Arab-Israeli citizens, about 2.1 million (?21 % of the population), are represented by Ra’am and the Joint List. In 2021, Ra’am’s leader Mansour Abbas joined a coalition that unseated Netanyahu, the first time an independent Arab party entered government. After that coalition collapsed, Netanyahu returned. Since the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, Arab parties have faced heightened scrutiny. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has advocated “judaizing” the Negev and Galilee, and Arab politician Ahmad Tibi reports receiving threats. In September, the Central Elections Committee tried to bar Ra’am and the Joint List; the Supreme Court overturned the decision.
Polls and Seat Projections
A Maariv poll from October 23, 2026 shows the coalition bloc at 48 seats and the opposition at 54 seats. The People of Israel party fell short of the 3.25 % threshold with 3 % of the vote. Excluding it would shift the balance to 50 coalition seats, 56 opposition seats, and 14 Arab seats. 81 % of respondents say they will vote, up from 74 % among Arab supporters in an earlier poll. Over half of Arab respondents cite gang violence as the decisive issue for their vote.
Official Statements & Responses
- Mansour Abbas and Yousef Jabareen condemned the October 7 attacks.
- Ra’am placed former police officer Yoav Segalovitz in its second-place slot to appeal to Jewish voters.
- The Joint List would support an anti-Netanyahu government from outside the cabinet if a crime-prevention plan for Arab communities is included.
- Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the centrist Yashar party, ruled out any power-sharing with Arab parties.
- The Supreme Court affirmed Ra’am and the Joint List’s right to run.
Criticism & Opposition
Right-wing figures continue to oppose Arab participation. Bezalel Smotrich reiterates his goal to “judaize” regions with large Arab populations, framing Arab parties as obstacles to Israel’s Jewish character. Several opposition parties say they will not rely on Arab support, preferring a minority administration or a new election.
On-the-Ground Sentiment
Arab-Israeli voter turnout historically ranges from 45 % to 65 %. The recent rise in voting certainty suggests a potentially higher Arab turnout this cycle.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls estimate the Arab bloc could win up to 15 seats, but the exact number will be known only after the vote count. No definitive post-election seat allocation is available yet.
Why It Matters
With neither bloc able to form a government alone, Arab seats could decide whether an anti-Netanyahu coalition succeeds, a minority government must seek external Arab support, or a deadlock triggers another election. The positions of parties such as Yashar and Yisrael Beytenu, which have ruled out Arab inclusion, will shape coalition talks and future stability.
What’s Next
- October 27: Election day.
- Post-election: Parties negotiate coalition agreements; a minority government relying on outside Arab support remains possible.
- Ongoing: Monitoring Arab voter turnout and right-wing responses to any Arab influence in the Knesset.