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BC Conservatives Lead Final Pre-Election Poll, Raising Possibility of Majority Government
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Findings from the Final Pre-Election Survey
The latest Ipsos poll, conducted in the final days before the provincial election, shows the BC Conservatives at 44 % support, up one point from the previous survey. The BC NDP trails at 39 %, while the BC Green Party registers 13 %. Undecided or non-committal voters total 18 %, down seven points from earlier polling. Voter certainty is roughly equal for the Conservatives (13 % still likely to change) and the NDP (14 %). The poll’s credibility interval is ±3.3 percentage points overall, with a wider margin for sub-groups.
Party Leader Favorability
Favorability ratings remain mixed. Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson records 31 % favourable and 33 % unfavourable impressions. NDP leader David Eby holds 35 % favourable and 40 % unfavourable. Green Party leader Emily Lowan improves to 30 % favourable and 18 % unfavourable. Leaders of smaller parties—OneBC’s Dallas Brodie and CentreBC’s Elenore Sturko—show markedly lower favourable impressions (13 % and 11 % respectively) and higher unfavourable scores.
Implications for the Upcoming Election
The poll suggests a Conservative majority is plausible, though the margin of error leaves room for alternative outcomes, including a less likely NDP majority or a scenario where the Greens hold the balance of power. Turnout and late-stage voter decisions are identified as decisive factors. A majority of respondents (53 %) endorse the notion that it is “time for a change,” indicating potential openness to a shift away from the incumbent government.
Methodology and Reliability
The survey sampled 1,260 adult British Columbians, combining online panel respondents with phone interviews across cell-phone and landline users. Data were weighted by region, age, gender and education to reflect census proportions. The poll’s overall precision is measured at ±3.3 percentage points, with online-only questions carrying a slightly larger interval of ±4.1 percentage points.
Outlook and Voter Sentiment
While the Conservatives appear positioned to form government, the sizable undecided bloc and the expressed willingness of 15 % of voters to switch parties at the ballot box underscore a fluid electoral environment. The “time for a change” narrative continues to resonate, suggesting that the final weeks before voting could see notable shifts in voter intent.