Full Breakdown
The Growing Political Clout of Israel’s Ultra-Orthodox Parties and the Draft-Evasion Crisis
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
In the months before Israel’s 2026 parliamentary election, dozens of ultra-Orthodox men were detained on suspicion of evading mandatory service. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the arrests “unacceptable” and said coercive measures discourage enlistment. Simultaneously, the coalition passed a temporary law—prompted by Haredi parties—to halt further arrests of draft-evaders, underscoring the parties’ leverage in coalition talks.
Background & Context
For decades, Haredi men have enjoyed de facto exemption from compulsory service, reinforced by subsidies to religious schools. A 2024 Supreme Court ruling declared the blanket exemption illegal and ordered that Haredi men be drafted like other citizens. The Netanyahu administration has struggled to enact legislation, leading the two main Haredi parties—Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ)—to leave the Likud-led coalition in 2025.
Timeline
- 2024 – Supreme Court rules the universal Haredi exemption illegal.
- 2025 – Shas and UTJ withdraw from the governing coalition over draft-exemption demands.
- Mid-2026 – Government passes a law, at Haredi parties’ urging, temporarily preventing arrests of draft-evaders.
- Late October 2026 – A week before the election, dozens of Haredi men are detained for draft-evasion.
- 2026 election – Haredi parties remain pivotal for any coalition seeking a majority.
Data & Statistics
- Haredi Jews make up roughly 14 % of Israel’s population, projected to rise to about 25 % by 2050 (CBS).
- The average Haredi family has six children, and 33 % of Haredi households live below the poverty line.
- Tens of thousands of Haredi-eligible men remain unserved; fewer than 500 have been arrested in 2026.
- Seven in ten Jewish Israelis support drafting the Haredi community.
- Israel’s electoral threshold is 3.25 % of the national vote.
Official Statements & Responses
- Benjamin Netanyahu called the arrests “unacceptable” and said punitive actions “discourage enlistment without coercion.” He added that Haredi men not in full-time study should join the army.
- Naftali Bennett (former Prime Minister) warned he would cut subsidies to Haredi communities if draft-evasion persists.
- Gadi Eisenkot (Yashar party) proposed allowing 3 % of Haredi men to retain study exemptions while drafting the majority.
- Shas and UTJ say they will not join any coalition that fails to codify a draft exemption into law.
Criticism & Opposition
Right-wing parties filed legal petitions challenging the July 2026 law that blocks arrests of draft-evaders, arguing it undermines equal civic duty and heightens intra-coalition tension.
Why It Matters
The exemption issue sits at the intersection of Israel’s security needs and its proportional-representation system. Perceptions of an unequal service burden fuel resentment among conscripted Israelis. The Haredi parties’ ability to swing coalition formation gives them leverage beyond their demographic size, influencing defense, welfare, and education policy.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on the scale of recent arrests: one account cites “dozens” detained a week before the election, another notes “fewer than 500” arrests throughout 2026. Precise figures and the long-term impact of the arrest-blocking law on conscription rates remain unclear.
What’s Next
The 2026 election will decide whether Netanyahu can retain Haredi support or must seek other partners. Pending legal challenges to the July 2026 law may reach the Supreme Court, potentially reshaping enforcement of the 2024 ruling. Legislative proposals such as Eisenkot’s exemption plan could become focal points in post-election negotiations.