Story perspectives

Datafolha Deadlocks Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro at 50%

By Drooid · Oct 24, 2026, 10:50 AM UTC · How we work

Summary

Story summary

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro will contest runoff election on October 25, 2026.
Datafolha poll shows both candidates dead-locked at 50% of valid votes, erasing a prior four-point lead.
Flávio Bolsonaro earned 47% of votes, ahead of Lula’s 45%, in the first round on October 4, 2026.
Both candidates face corruption investigations.
Analysts say a Bolsonaro win could boost U.S. President Donald Trump’s influence in Latin America.

History

Historical Context

The 2018 election saw Jair Bolsonaro win with 46% of the vote after the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff (2016) and the Operation Car Wash convictions that barred Lula. Lula’s comeback in 2022, winning 50.9% in the runoff, set the stage for the 2026 second-round contest between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, both under corruption investigations and reflecting the right-wing surge linked to Donald Trump’s regional influence.

1 of 2

Story summary

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro will contest runoff election on October 25, 2026.
Datafolha poll shows both candidates dead-locked at 50% of valid votes, erasing a prior four-point lead.
Flávio Bolsonaro earned 47% of votes, ahead of Lula’s 45%, in the first round on October 4, 2026.
Both candidates face corruption investigations.
Analysts say a Bolsonaro win could boost U.S. President Donald Trump’s influence in Latin America.

1 / 2