Full Breakdown
People of Israel and Charedi Public Refuse Netanyahu-Led Push to Exit Oct. 27 Election
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
Small right-wing parties People of Israel (led by Ofer Winter) and Charedi Public (led by Moti Leitner) announced they will stay in the October 27 Knesset election despite pressure from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and their allies to withdraw. Offers of ministerial posts and private meetings with Winter’s mentor, Rabbi Eli Sadan, were used to try to prevent vote-splitting that could jeopardize the right-wing bloc’s chances of forming a government.
Background & Context
Netanyahu’s coalition depends on a narrow right-wing majority. Parties hovering around the 3.25 % electoral threshold risk siphoning votes from established allies such as Likud, Shas and United Torah Judaism. In February 2024, Netanyahu and Smotrich met with Rabbi Sadan to urge Winter’s withdrawal; Smotrich later offered Winter a Defense-ministry portfolio overseeing a “voluntary” Gaza-migration directorate and ultra-Orthodox enlistment, conditional on quitting the race.
Data & Statistics
- Polls from Channel 12 and Channel 13 show Likud’s bloc projected at 51–49 seats and the opposition bloc at 52–55 seats, both short of a governing majority.
- In the Channel 12 survey Winter’s party barely crossed the threshold, while Charedi Public fell well below it. The Channel 13 poll gave the opposite result for the Reservists-Economic party.
- An internal poll for a coalition partner indicated that if Blue and White leader Benny Gantz withdrew, 24.2 % of his supporters (?10,000 votes) might shift to Winter, potentially pushing his party over the threshold.
Official Statements & Responses
- Netanyahu posted a message from bereaved families urging Winter to step down, arguing that “every vote is important” and that Winter’s candidacy endangers the right-wing victory.
- Smotrich reiterated his offer of a ministerial slot, emphasizing that “the right-wing camp cannot afford to repeat the mistakes of the past.”
- Winter said his party remains “part of the right-wing camp” and will not withdraw, calling the pressure campaign “ugly and unethical.”
- Leitner warned that withdrawing now would let “the old, corrupt system” win, positioning Charedi Public as a reformist alternative to the established Haredi parties.
Criticism & Opposition
Likud activists expressed frustration in internal WhatsApp messages, claiming Winter’s presence blocks a potential Eisenkot-led government and that the campaign against him has failed to diminish his support. Leitner labeled United Torah Judaism and Shas as maintaining a “violent political monopoly” that denies genuine representation.
Why It Matters
If People of Israel and Charedi Public fail to cross the 3.25 % threshold, their votes will be redistributed, potentially altering the balance between the right-wing coalition and the opposition bloc. Crossing the threshold could add seats to the right-wing camp, strengthening Netanyahu’s position in coalition talks and affecting debates on ultra-Orthodox conscription and Gaza-related migration proposals championed by Winter.
Timeline
- February 7 2024 – Netanyahu and Smotrich meet with Rabbi Eli Sadan to pressure Winter.
- October 21 2026 – Smotrich publicly offers Winter a ministerial post if he withdraws.
- October 27 2024 (scheduled) – National election for the 26th Knesset.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Channel 12 and Channel 13 polls disagree on whether Winter’s party clears the electoral threshold. Internal polling on the impact of Gantz’s withdrawal provides differing estimates of vote transfers to Winter, leaving uncertainty about the exact magnitude of any boost.