Full Breakdown
Halloween Candy Sales Slip as Living Costs and Cocoa Prices Surge
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Decline in Seasonal Purchases
U.S. retailers reported that Halloween-season candy purchases were down 6.7 % in the month ending mid-October compared with the same period a year earlier, according to NielsenIQ data. An 11.7 % drop in mid-September erased the modest gains seen in the two preceding years, and large-size bags experienced the steepest sales declines, while only small bags showed modest growth.
Price Pressures and Supply-Side Factors
Cocoa, which underpins most chocolate treats, hit a record $10,710 per metric ton in January 2025—a level driven by poor weather in West Africa, which supplies roughly 70 % of global cocoa, and speculative futures trading, per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Although cocoa fell to $3,241 per metric ton in March, prices rebounded in the spring after the Iran war disrupted fertilizer shipments to Africa and an El Niño pattern is expected to keep conditions hot and dry through February.
U.S. gasoline averaged $4.29 per gallon, about 40 % higher than a year earlier, and candy-and-gum prices have risen 44 % over the past five years, outpacing the 22.5 % increase in overall grocery costs. Non-chocolate treats such as gummies and lollipops averaged $6.08 per pound in the nine weeks ending mid-October, roughly 3 % lower than last year, yet this price dip did not spur higher sales.
Industry and Analyst Perspectives
Chris Costagli, vice president and food thought leader at NielsenIQ, linked the sales slump to broader affordability concerns, noting that consumers are allocating more of their budgets to fuel, housing, clothing and food. Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and food industry adviser at Circana, observed that shoppers are making smaller, more frequent trips and may be postponing candy purchases until closer to Halloween. The National Confectioners Association, representing makers such as Mars, Smarties Candy Co. and Ferrara Candy Co., expressed optimism, stating that consumer enthusiasm remains strong as the peak Halloween period begins.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I think what you’re seeing now is a consumer that’s spending so much additional money on fuel and housing and clothing and food,” — Chris Costagli, a vice president and food thought leader at NielsenIQ — Chris Costagli, vice president and food thought leader at NielsenIQ.