Full Breakdown
IMD Issues Red Alerts for Kerala and Forecasts Cyclonic Storm in the Bay of Bengal
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Background & Context
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been monitoring a low-pressure area over the east-central and southeast Bay of Bengal. First noted on October 23, the system was forecast to intensify from a depression on October 24 to a cyclonic storm by October 26, moving west-northwestward toward the north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts. Simultaneously, the IMD issued severe rainfall alerts for several southern states, most prominently Kerala.
Data & Statistics
- Rainfall thresholds (IMD):
- Extremely heavy > 204.4 mm/24 h (red)
- Very heavy 115.6–204.4 mm/24 h (orange)
- Heavy 64.5–115.5 mm/24 h (yellow)
- Kerala red alerts (as of October 25):
- Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad – red on Oct 25
- Idukki, Palakkad – slated for red on Oct 26
- Other Kerala alerts: Orange and yellow alerts cover all 14 districts.
- Bay of Bengal system: Expected to become cyclonic storm “Arnab” by October 26, with winds of at least 63 km/h.
Official Statements & Responses
The Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) urged residents in landslip-prone hills and flood-prone low-lying areas to relocate if necessary, avoid crossing rivers, and refrain from non-essential travel, especially at night. Fishermen along the Kerala, Karnataka, Lakshadweep, Cochin and nearby Maldives coasts received a “do not venture” advisory for four days.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on the number of districts under red alert. *The Hindu* and other outlets report three districts on October 25 and two on October 26, while *The Hindu Business Line* and *Moneycontrol* describe five districts on October 25-26. Both cite the same IMD thresholds but do not reconcile the discrepancy.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The sea is already rough over the east-central and southeast Bay of Bengal and is likely to become very rough in the coming days,” — General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, IMD director
- “If the system intensifies into a cyclone, this will be the first cyclonic storm over Bay of Bengal this year. While Bengal is unlikely to fall in the direct trajectory of the system, coastal Bengal is likely to receive a few spells of heavy rain. We have issued a warning for fishermen,” — Biswas
What's Next
- October 26: Red alerts for Idukki and Palakkad become active; the system is expected to be classified as a cyclonic storm.
- October 27: IMD forecasts extremely heavy to heavy rainfall for coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, with isolated downpours exceeding 20 cm in 24 h.
- October 28-29: Additional heavy rainfall warnings extend to parts of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Bihar, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh.
- Monitoring: IMD will continue updates on intensity and track, and KSDMA will maintain vigilance on flood-prone zones throughout the alert period.