Full Breakdown
Israel’s Oct 27 Election: A Tight Race Between Netanyahu’s Likud and Eisenkot’s Yashar
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
Israel will hold a general election on October 27. The contest pits incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party against former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the centrist Yashar party. Polls published in the weeks before the vote show Yashar narrowly ahead, but neither bloc is projected to reach the 61-seat majority required to form a government in the 120-seat Knesset.
Background & Context
The election is the first since the October 7 2023 Hamas attack that killed ? 1,200 Israelis and triggered a war in Gaza. The security breach caused Likud’s popularity to slump, and opinion surveys have tracked a gradual erosion of support among its traditional Mizrahi base in towns such as Dimona, where an Iranian missile struck residential buildings on March 22 2026.
Data & Statistics
- Undecided voters: 13 % of the electorate remain undecided (Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research, Israel Democracy Institute).
- Former Likud voters: 55 % of 2022 Likud supporters say they will vote for it again; 15 % plan to support parties opposed to Netanyahu, including 8 % for Yashar.
- Poll averages (Oct 25 2026): Yashar leads with an average of 22 seats; Likud averages 19.75 seats. The opposition bloc totals 54 seats, the coalition bloc ? 50 seats.
- Electoral threshold: Parties must obtain 3.25 % of the vote to enter the Knesset. The People of Israel party (Ofer Winter) and the joint Reservists-Economic Party hover just below this line in all three television polls.
Campaign Strategies
Likud’s Ground Game and Technology
In Dimona, Likud activists are urging supporters to download the new “Victory 26” app, which tracks turnout without revealing voter identities. The party hopes to identify low-turnout neighborhoods and mobilize its base on election day.
Eisenkot’s Outreach to Traditional Likud Strongholds
Eisenkot’s campaign focuses on “golden cities” such as Dimona, Eilat, Beersheba and Netanya, deploying billboards in Moroccan Arabic (“Rosh Memshala Diyalna”) to appeal to Mizrahi voters. Officials say the goal is to keep former Likud voters from staying home.
Smaller-Party Dynamics
The fate of parties near the 3.25 % threshold could shift the balance between the two major blocs. Analysts note that if either the People of Israel or the Reservists-Economic Party fails to cross the threshold, their seats will be redistributed, potentially benefitting the opposition bloc.
Official Statements & Responses
- Netanyahu warned that “we have clear warnings from military intelligence and the Mossad that Iran and its proxies are considering ways to influence the elections” — Benjamin Netanyahu, prime minister.
- Finance Minister Belazel Smotrich criticized the Joint List’s negotiations with Arab parties, declaring, “There was a complete failure of judgment on the Right as well, and even good friends of mine and good people fell for Mansour Abbas’s false, sweet talk” — Belazel Smotrich, finance minister.
Criticism & Opposition
Smotrich’s comment reflects intra-bloc tension over cooperation with Arab parties. While he positions himself as a defender of the right-wing bloc’s purity, opponents argue that excluding Arab partners could jeopardize the bloc’s ability to reach a governing majority.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Seat projections: Yashar’s projected seats range from 21 (Jpost polls) to 23 (N12/Channel 13 polls). Likud’s range spans 19 to 21 seats.
- Threshold parties: The People of Israel party is reported at 2.5 %–3.1 % in three television polls, while the Reservists-Economic Party is shown at 2.4 %–3.0 % in the same surveys. No source provides a definitive outcome, leaving the exact impact on bloc totals uncertain.