Full Breakdown
Texas Midterm Early Voting Surges Amid Tight Senate Race
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Record Early-Voting Turnout Across the State
Early voting in Texas has begun at an unprecedented pace. By the fourth day of the voting period, VoteHub reported nearly 2.9 million ballots cast statewide, suggesting about 67 % of all voters may vote early. In Harris County alone, more than 104 000 voters turned out on the first day, surpassing the previous midterm record of 63 000 set in 2018. Harris County totals now exceed 362 534 ballots; Dallas County approaches 199 000, and Fort Bend County reports roughly one-in-four registered voters having voted.
Background & Context: 2026 Midterms and Key Races
The 2026 midterm election features a closely watched U.S. Senate contest between Democrat James Talarico and incumbent Republican Ken Paxton. Governor Greg Abbott is also seeking a fourth term, while Harris County judgeship and other statewide offices are on the ballot.
Data & Statistics
- Potential statewide turnout: up to 10 million voters (?90 % of the 2024 presidential turnout).
- Early-voting ballots statewide (first four days): ?2.9 million.
- Harris County early votes: 104 000 first-day in-person, 362 534 total so far; 75 voting centers, most with wait times under 15 minutes.
- Dallas County early turnout on day 1 exceeded 2024 levels.
- In the “big four” North Texas counties, early voting is slightly higher in Democratic-leaning areas and modestly lower in Republican-leaning areas.
- Republican Lt. Governor Dan Patrick estimates 600 000 high-propensity Republican voters have yet to cast ballots.
Official Statements & Responses
Zachary Donnini explained that early turnout data reveal only part of the electoral picture; persuasion remains essential, especially in traditionally Republican suburbs such as North Richland Hills. He noted that for Talarico to win statewide, a six-point margin is likely required, meaning Republicans must lose ground in both suburban and urban precincts.
Democratic State Representative Vikki Goodwin praised the surge, describing the turnout as “huge” and “inspiring,” and highlighted the influx of new voters who feel their votes matter.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Early-voting totals for Harris County differ among sources: one report cites 327 000 voters in the first three days, another records 362 534 total, while a separate article highlights a 104 000 first-day record. No source provides a definitive statewide partisan split, leaving the magnitude of the Democratic early lead uncertain.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Dallas, on the first day, I believe, had a bigger turnout than 2024,” — Zachary Donnini, Head of Data Science at VoteHub
- “The Democrats have the early lead, but we have about 600,000 of the high-propensity voters who haven't shown up yet,” — Dan Patrick, governor
What’s Next
Early voting continues through October 30, after which voters must cast ballots on November 3, Election Day. Both parties are expected to intensify outreach as the deadline approaches, with the Senate race remaining the focal point of statewide attention.