Full Breakdown
Global FDI Surges While New Project Announcements Slump in 2026
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
In the first half of 2026, foreign direct investment (FDI) rose 37% compared with the average half-year level in 2025, driven largely by developed economies. The surge was concentrated in financial flows through Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg and a near-doubling of inflows to the United States. At the same time, announced greenfield projects fell 15%, and international project-finance deals declined 11%, indicating that larger transactions are masking weaker overall investment activity.
Background & Context
UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2026 places global FDI at $1.6 trillion for 2025, a 6% increase from the previous year. The 20 largest host economies now account for more than 80% of global inflows. Strategic sectors—artificial intelligence, semiconductors, clean energy and critical minerals—have grown from 16% of announced greenfield value in 2020 to 44% in 2025, yet least-developed and lower-middle-income economies receive only about 10% of that strategic-sector investment.
Data & Statistics
| Indicator | 2025 baseline | 2026 change (first half / nine months) |
|---|---|---|
| Global FDI (total) | $1.6 trillion | +37% |
| FDI to developed economies | — | +70% |
| FDI to developing economies | — | +8% |
| Cross-border M&A value | — | +57% to $494 billion |
| Cross-border M&A deal count | — | –23% |
| Greenfield project announcements | — | –15% overall; >20% decline in developing economies |
| Sustainable-development-goal projects (developing) | — | –25% |
| Renewable-energy project finance (developing) | — | –?33% (vs. –4% in developed) |
| Data-centre greenfield value (developing) | — | –$32 billion |
| GCC outward project-finance (Q2 2026) | — | >50% drop vs. prior year |
| GCC domestic project-finance (2025-2026) | — | >3× increase, driven by a $55 billion Emaar project |
Official Statements & Responses
Pedro Manuel Moreno, UNCTAD Deputy Secretary General, opened the World Investment Forum emphasizing that the event is meant to help countries craft investment strategies, strengthen institutions and find partners. He warned that least-developed and lower-middle-income economies received barely 10% of strategic-sector investment, highlighting challenges in capital access, skilled labour, energy and institutional capacity. Moreno also noted that regional conflict in the Middle East adds cost and uncertainty, potentially prompting Gulf investors to delay overseas sustainable-development projects.
The OECD’s September analysis “Fewer projects, bigger bets” echoed UNCTAD’s findings, describing a shift toward fewer but larger deals and urging diversified, resilient investment bases rather than reliance on project counts alone.
Why It Matters / Impact
The concentration of capital in high-income economies and strategic technology sectors suggests a widening gap between where investment is flowing and where development needs are greatest. Declines in greenfield projects linked to the Sustainable Development Goals, especially in renewable energy and digital infrastructure, could hinder progress toward climate targets and digital inclusion in developing regions. The drop in GCC outward project-finance, coupled with a surge in domestic financing, reflects heightened geopolitical risk and may limit cross-border sustainable-development financing.
What's Next
The World Investment Forum 2026, scheduled for 25 – 27 October in Doha, Qatar, will run under the theme “Investing in the Future.” A session on risk sharing will examine guarantees, credit insurance, blended finance and cooperation among development banks, commercial lenders and private insurers, aiming to improve financing tools for countries, sectors and smaller firms that struggle to attract private capital. The forum’s outcomes will indicate whether concrete partnerships or financing arrangements emerge beyond the stated agenda.