Full Breakdown
The High-Stakes Texas Senate Race: Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico
By Drooid · · How we work
Race Overview
Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Representative James Talarico are locked in a tightly contested race for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat. Early voting set a record turnout, and recent polls show the candidates within a few points. The contest is the costliest non-presidential Senate race in modern history, drawing national attention because the winner could help determine control of the 100-member Senate in the November 3 midterm elections.
Background & Context
Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. Paxton survived a 2023 impeachment and was acquitted by the Texas Senate before defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff on May 26. He secured an endorsement from former President Donald Trump on May 19. Talarico entered the race amid Democratic hopes of flipping the seat.
Timeline
- March 2, 2026 – Talarico speaks at a rally in Houston.
- May 19 – Trump endorses Paxton.
- May 26 – Paxton wins the Republican primary runoff.
- October 14 – Marist poll: Talarico 47 %, Paxton 45 %.
- Mid-October – Fox News poll: race tied at 49 % each.
- Late October – Early voting concludes.
- November 3 – Election Day.
Data & Statistics
- Total advertising spend: $544.5 million; $386.3 million for Paxton (AdImpact).
- Elon Musk’s political outlays total roughly $366 million across 40 races, with about $189.6 million directed to support Paxton in Texas.
- Demographic splits (Fox poll): Hispanic voters favor Talarico 64 %–34 %; White evangelical Christians favor Paxton 52 %–?; Black, urban, and college-educated women lean toward Talarico.
Official Statements & Responses
- Donald Trump campaigned in Lubbock for Paxton, calling him a “MAGA Warrior.”
- Neil Bush, brother of former President George W. Bush, announced he will vote for Talarico, citing Paxton’s impeachment and election-challenge efforts.
- Elon Musk posted on X that “There is something deeply wrong with James Talarico.”
Criticism & Opposition
- Legal scholar David Schultz (Hamline University) called Paxton “not a very good candidate” and warned a Democratic win would signal a broader shift.
- Neil Bush criticized Paxton’s “judgment and conduct,” referencing the 2023 impeachment and the 2020 election challenge.
- Glenn Vallejo, a rally attendee, linked his support for Paxton to opposition to Talarico’s comment about “six sexes.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polling shows divergent pictures: the Marist poll gave Talarico a modest lead, while the Fox News poll reported a tie. Differences in methodology leave the true state of the race unclear. Russian influence claims rely on a single classified-source statement; no public evidence has confirmed specific disinformation targeting Talarico.
Why It Matters
Control of the Senate hinges on a handful of competitive races, and Texas is one of the few Southern states where Democrats are within striking distance. A Democratic victory would end a 38-year Republican Senate streak in Texas and could shift the balance of power in Washington, affecting legislation on immigration, gun policy, and federal funding.
Verbatim Quotes
- “My concerns about his judgment and conduct are hardly mine alone,” — George W. Bush
- “There is something deeply wrong with James Talarico.” — Elon Musk
What's Next
Early voting ends later in October, and both campaigns are intensifying outreach as November 3 approaches. The final outcome will be decided by an electorate that includes shifting Hispanic support and a notable share of non-MAGA Republicans.