Full Breakdown
Cyclone Arnab: Intensifying Bay-of-Bengal Storm Threatens Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Southern India
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Core Event
A low-pressure system over the east-central Bay of Bengal has intensified into a deep depression and is projected to become a very severe cyclonic storm with sustained winds of 115–125 km h?¹ and gusts up to 140 km h?¹. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts landfall on the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam on the forenoon of 28 Oct 2026, bringing heavy rainfall to Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and parts of southern India.
Background & Context
- 23 Oct: Low-pressure area formed.
- 24 Oct: System deepened into a depression.
- 25 Oct: Strengthened to a deep depression.
- 26 Oct: Expected cyclonic storm.
- 27 Oct: Forecast to upgrade to severe cyclonic storm.
- 28 Oct: Anticipated landfall as very severe cyclonic storm.
These stages follow the IMD’s classification based on wind speed thresholds.
Timeline
| Date | Development | Expected Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct | Low-pressure area | Sets stage for intensification |
| 24 Oct | Depression | Organized convection |
| 25 Oct | Deep depression | Rain spreads south |
| 26 Oct | Cyclonic storm | Heavy rain in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, AP |
| 27 Oct | Severe cyclonic storm | Very heavy rain in coastal AP & Odisha |
| 28 Oct | Very severe cyclonic storm, landfall | Extreme rain, storm surge, landslides |
Data & Statistics
- Wind: 115–125 km h?¹ sustained, gusts to 140 km h?¹ (IMD).
- Rainfall alerts: Red > 204 mm/24 h; Orange 115–204 mm/24 h; Yellow 64–115 mm/24 h.
- Odisha red-alert districts (28 Oct): Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada, Koraput, Malkangiri – isolated downpours > 20 cm.
- Kerala red-alert districts (25-26 Oct): Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Idukki, Palakkad.
- Tamil Nadu 24-h totals: Burliyar 25 cm, Kil Kotagiri Estate 20 cm, Coonoor 17 cm.
- Disaster response: 60 ODRAF teams, 17 NDRF teams, 225 fire-service teams on high alert.
Official Statements & Responses
- Odisha Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi directed ministers to vulnerable districts, cancelled leave for disaster personnel and set a “zero-casualty” target.
- Fire Officer Ramesh Majhi detailed deployment of 225 fire-service vehicles, 1,510 chainsaws, 25 rescue tenders and 12 plasma cutters.
- IMD director-general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the most intense rainfall will occur on 28 Oct, coinciding with landfall.
On-the-Ground Reports
- Nilgiris: 25 cm of rain triggered mudslides, burying a bus and killing the driver; over 200 vehicles stranded and 100 students evacuated.
- Odisha’s Ganjam: 100 cyclone shelters readied and 1,000 temporary locations identified for evacuation.
- Cuddalore: Rescue teams retrieved nine workers from a swollen river; sandbagging continues along vulnerable highways.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Classification: Some IMD bulletins list the system as a “severe cyclonic storm” on 27 Oct, later upgraded to “very severe cyclonic storm” for 28 Oct.
- Wind speeds: A few outlets cite up to 130 km h?¹, but IMD’s official range remains 115–125 km h?¹.
- Landfall point: Forecasts place landfall between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, while some reports mention proximity to Malkangiri district after crossing.
What’s Next
- IMD will issue alerts through 30 Oct and monitor sea conditions, expected to deteriorate to “phenomenal” on the morning of 28 Oct.
- Fishermen are advised to avoid the Bay of Bengal from 26-28 Oct and return to port by 29 Oct.
- State disaster authorities will assess post-landfall damage and adjust evacuation orders as the system moves inland.