Rising Tensions and the Specter of a New World War

Financial Times foreign-affairs columnist Gideon Rachman’s latest book, *War Is Interested in You*, argues that the world is edging toward a large-scale conflict. Drawing on the oft-cited Trotsky line that “war is interested in you,” Rachman contends that the most powerful nuclear-armed states— the United States, China and Russia—are now led by “self-dealing strongmen” whose nationalist agendas undermine the post-Cold-War stability that once restrained great-power rivalry.

The Guardian

Rachman cites a record-high tally of 61 separate conflicts in 2024, of which 11 qualify as full-scale wars. The tally includes the war in Gaza and a less-publicised war in Sudan that, by mid-2025, had produced roughly 150,000 battlefield deaths. Ongoing “state-based conflicts” in 2026 span the largest land war in Europe since 1945 (Ukraine) and the most disruptive Middle-East war in two decades (Iran). Rachman notes that these wars are beginning to intersect: Russia has deployed North Korean troops, Iran is throttling global shipping, and Ukraine is advising Gulf states on drone use. Additional flashpoints—India-Pakistan, North-South Korea, and China-Taiwan—remain poised to ignite.

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Rachman identifies Taiwan as the most immediate trigger for a world war because it could draw China and the United States into direct combat. He points out that China now fields more warships than the United States, with a single Chinese shipyard on Changxing Island capable of output exceeding all U.S. yards combined. By contrast, U.S. officials have repeatedly affirmed a commitment to Taiwan’s defense.

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According to Rachman, the institutions that once underpinned global stability—the United Nations, the World Trade Organization and NATO—are being deliberately weakened by the same authoritarian leaders. He quotes former Bank of England governor Mark Carney, who declares that the rules-based order “no longer works.” Rachman also observes that the “Golden Arches” theory, which linked the spread of McDonald’s to peace, failed in the 1990s, and that the number of democracies has been in steady decline since 2006.

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Rachman concludes that the combination of aggressive great-power posturing, overlapping regional wars, and a faltering international framework creates a “rupture” in global security. Without effective mechanisms to manage these tensions, the risk of a broader, possibly world-wide conflict appears to be rising. The book serves as a warning that the current geopolitical trajectory may be steering the world toward a conflict of unprecedented scale.

The Guardian