Full Breakdown
Democrats Favored to Flip Congress in 2026 Midterms Amid Trump’s Low Approval and Economic Strain
By Drooid · · How we work
Election Forecast and Core Numbers
With eight days left before the November 3 midterm elections, Nate Silver’s aggregate model gives Democrats a 75 % chance of winning the Senate and a 95 % chance of taking the House. The generic-ballot lead stands at 9.5 points (Democrats 51.6 % vs 42.1 %). A CBS News simulation puts Democrats on pace for 229 House seats, with a possible range into the 230s.
Background: Trump’s Approval and Policy Context
President Donald Trump holds a net approval of -23.3 in Silver’s poll pool, with 60.2 % disapproving and 36.9 % approving. Issue-specific ratings are especially low: immigration -13.2, trade -29.9, economy -32.6, inflation -46.0. His October 9 diesel-import deal with Russia further eroded his standing. The ongoing Iran war, launched on February 28 without congressional authorization, remains a focal point of criticism; Democrats have introduced resolutions to force congressional approval.
Economic Pressures Influencing Voters
Average regular-petrol price is US $4.29 per gallon, up from $4.36 in early October and $4.48 on September 25. International Brent crude rose from US $96.16 per barrel on September 29 to $116.72 last Friday, the highest level since the Iran war began, likely pushing retail fuel costs higher before Election Day. A Bloomberg poll finds 75 % of likely voters rate the economy as “fair or poor,” attributing rising prices largely to Trump’s policies.
Voter Motivation and Early Turnout
CBS polling shows over 70 % of Democratic voters view their vote as opposition to Trump, while Republican motivation is less tied to personal support for him. Early-voting data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab indicates more than 23 million Americans have already cast ballots, with battleground states such as Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida and Texas posting high early-vote totals.
Official Statements & Responses
- Barack Obama – “We have never seen a president excel in straight-up grifting, on your dime, like this.”
- David Axelrod – “If the wave is high enough to breach the wall they’ve built with all this money and ads, you could have a Senate with 53 to 54 Democrats.”
- Davis Ingle – “President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress.”
Why It Matters
Control of both chambers would enable Democrats to curb Trump’s foreign-policy agenda—potentially forcing congressional approval for the Iran war, limiting defense spending, and reopening investigations into the Epstein files.