Full Breakdown
US Airstrikes in Somalia Accused of Exploiting El Niño Floods Amid Looming Humanitarian Crisis
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The Alleged Strategy and Its Human Toll
In the al-Shabaab-controlled city of Jilib, United States Africa Command (Africom) has intensified drone and air strikes that residents say are forcing civilians toward the flood-prone banks of the River Juba. 27-year-old mother of six Cayni Ali describes “constant” drone activity that pins the population beside rising waters, while witnesses report bodies left in the streets and homes flattened by strikes.
Background: El Niño, Flood History, and Al Shabaab Territory
The 2023 El Niño event produced the worst floods in a century, displacing more than 1.2 million Somalis. Jilib sits on a low-lying plain that is chronically vulnerable; in 2023, extensive farmland was submerged and 19 000 people were stranded for a week without food. The United States has conducted a legally ambiguous war against al Shabaab, which controls roughly 30 % of Somalia, with limited public accountability.
Data & Statistics
- Projected displacement: 874 319 people could be forced from their homes between October and December 2026, with 92 % of the movement attributed to flooding (IOM).
- Funding gap: Only about 14.4 % of the required $16.62 million has been secured, leaving roughly $2.4 million to support over 517 000 people in flood-prone communities.
- ICRC injuries: The International Committee of the Red Cross treated 205 patients with “weapon-related” injuries in Kismayo this year, a 43 % increase over the previous year.
- US strike count: Africom reports 11 strikes from the start of August through the present, with one confirmed strike in Jilib. Eyewitnesses describe daily strikes and a drone strike near Jamame on 19 March.
- Casualty reports: Local accounts cite numerous civilian deaths, including three teenagers killed in a single strike and a drone-delivered shard of metal landing near a two-year-old child’s yard.
Official Statements & Responses
A spokesperson for Africom stated, “Africom does not target civilians, conduct operations for the purpose of displacing civilian populations or use weather or flooding as a method of warfare. Africom targets lawful military objectives and takes feasible measures to mitigate civilian harm.”
The IOM’s chief of mission, Manuel Marques Pereira, warned on 23 October 2026 that “the window is closing” to reduce flood impacts and urged urgent funding to protect homes, livelihoods, and safe evacuation routes.
Turkey’s drone operations alongside Africom are noted, though details remain undisclosed.
Criticism & Opposition
Halimo Abdikadir, a resident of Kamsuuma, condemned the drone campaign: “The drone attacks on Jilib are too much. So many people die.” Farhan Ahmed, commissioner for displaced people in Jubaland, highlighted the shortage of boats, noting that 327 flood-prone regions have been identified but only half received early warnings. Children arrive at ICRC-supported hospitals severely malnourished, with child malnutrition rates rising 40 % this year.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Strike numbers: Africom’s tally of 11 strikes contrasts with resident testimonies of daily attacks and the Guardian’s record of a senior al Shabaab commander killed on 1 October.
- Casualty data: The United States has not released civilian casualty figures, citing operational security, while local accounts detail numerous deaths and injuries.
- Funding shortfall: The IOM’s projected needs far exceed the funds secured, leaving a large portion of the at-risk population without adequate protection or assistance.
What’s Next
The IOM urges immediate financing to expand early-warning systems, establish safe evacuation corridors, and provide shelter, water, and sanitation for the projected 517 000 flood-vulnerable residents. The organization stresses that the window to mitigate the crisis is rapidly closing.