Full Breakdown
Latino Voter Shift Threatens Trump-Backed Candidates in Florida and Texas Midterms
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
Polling and on-the-ground accounts show Latino voters in Miami-Dade County and Texas border communities moving away from President Donald Trump because of aggressive immigration enforcement. The shift is unfolding as the November 3 midterm elections approach, putting Republican hopes in several tight races at risk.
Background & Context
In 2024, Trump won 56 % of Florida’s Latino vote, helped by Venezuelan-American support after the capture of Nicolás Maduro. His 2024 Texas campaign also saw record Latino gains along the border. Since taking office, the administration has expanded ICE operations and increased deportations, drawing criticism from Latino residents and community leaders.
Data & Statistics
- CBS Battleground Tracker poll (Oct 24, 2026): 60 % of Hispanic likely voters would back Democratic congressional candidates, 39 % Republicans.
- Same poll: 59 % said the Trump administration was deporting more people than expected.
- Pew Research: Trump’s approval among Latino voters fell from 38 % (Feb 2025) to 24 % (Sept 2026).
- Fox News poll (Texas): 64 % of Hispanic voters preferred Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton.
- Construction owner Benny Melendez (McAllen, TX) said ICE raids forced him to erect fences around job sites, delaying home completions.
Why It Matters / Impact
The Latino swing could reshape key contests:
- Florida governor’s race – Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly by a narrow margin; a shift among Cuban-American voters could tighten the race.
- Florida’s 27th District – Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar faces a primary challenge after breaking with Trump on immigration.
- Texas Senate race – Democrat James Talarico’s strong Latino support makes the race competitive despite the state’s Republican tilt.
Official Statements & Responses
Senator Marco Rubio, on X, urged those seeking change in Cuba to act “now.”
Criticism & Opposition
Latino residents expressed disappointment with the administration’s policies:
- Andrea Ramos said she feels “disappointed” and “betrayed,” adding, “overall, I’m not feeling like the law is being respected.”
- Stephanie Caro observed a “heightened sense of fear” and said ICE presence “impacts the entire community.”
- Benny Melendez warned, “If I don’t install fences, ICE is going to come into my property and take my workers away,” and later said he regrets his votes for both Biden and Trump.
On-the-Ground Reports
In Doral, masked ICE officers have been photographed on streets, prompting local businesses to report reduced foot traffic. In McAllen, construction sites now feature barbed-wire fences, and workers report delays of up to a year to finish homes.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ on the magnitude of Latino disapproval: the CBS Battleground Tracker emphasizes deportation concerns, while a Univision/YouGov survey highlighted broader worries about detention risk. Neither source provides definitive turnout projections for Latino voters in the upcoming election, leaving analysts uncertain about the exact impact.
What’s Next
- Trump-backed candidates Byron Donalds (FL) and Ken Paxton (TX) will continue campaigning through the final weeks before the November 3 election.
- The Trump campaign plans additional rallies in South Florida, emphasizing anti-Iran and anti-Cuba rhetoric while trying to retain Latino support.
- Democratic groups are mobilizing Latino outreach, noting the community now represents a “probationary period” for the party’s future success.
The evolving Latino sentiment on immigration enforcement stands as a decisive factor in the 2026 midterms, with both parties racing to either stem the loss or capitalize on the shift.
