Full Breakdown
Cyclone Arnb: Forecast, Landfall Path, and Multi-State Preparedness Across India
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Core Event – Expected Landfall and Weather Impacts
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) projects Cyclone Arnab will become a very severe cyclonic storm and cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam on the forenoon of October 28, 2026. Expected maximum sustained winds are 115–125 kmph with gusts up to 140 kmph. Heavy to extremely heavy rain is forecast for coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha on October 27-28, with additional rain in adjoining states over the next few days.
Background & Context – Cyclone Development and Naming
The system formed as a low-pressure area over the east-central Bay of Bengal, became a depression on October 24, and has since intensified to Cyclone Arnab, a name contributed by Bangladesh under the WMO/UNESCAP naming list.
Timeline
- Oct 24 – System becomes a depression.
- Oct 26 – IMD places it over the east-central Bay, moving westward ~15 kmph.
- Oct 27 – Yellow alert for South Interior Karnataka; red/orange alerts for several Andhra Pradesh districts.
- Oct 28 – Expected landfall between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam; yellow alert continues for North Interior Karnataka.
- Oct 29 – Heavy rainfall forecast for parts of West Bengal’s sub-Himalayan region and eastern Uttar Pradesh on Oct 31.
Data & Statistics
- Wind: Sustained 115–125 kmph; gusts up to 140 kmph.
- Rainfall: Heavy to very heavy on Oct 27-28; isolated extremely heavy rain on Oct 28.
- Alerts: Yellow alerts for Karnataka (Oct 27-29); red alerts for five Odisha districts on Oct 28.
- Evacuation: APSDMA Managing Director Prakhar Jain estimates 5.7 lakh people in vulnerable coastal areas may need evacuation.
- Response forces: Andhra Pradesh has positioned 10 NDRF teams with 16 on standby; Odisha has mobilised ?60 ODRAF teams, 17 NDRF teams, and 225 fire-service teams.
- Port warnings: Cyclone signals hoisted at nine ports in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, including Chennai and Cuddalore.
Official Statements & Responses
- Cabinet Secretary TV Somanathan chaired the National Crisis Management Committee, directing officials to prioritise safety, minimise damage, and restore essential services quickly.
- Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu ordered round-the-clock vigilance, district-level control rooms, and regular alerts for coastal villages.
- Odisha Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi deployed ministers to oversee preparations, ordered school closures in six districts, and placed health, water-resources, and energy departments on standby.
- APSDMA Managing Director Prakhar Jain urged residents to remain alert and follow safety precautions during the three-day window.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The deep depression over the Bay of Bengal has intensified into Cyclone Arnab and is likely to strengthen further into a very severe cyclonic storm by October 27 before crossing the Andhra Pradesh coast on the morning of October 28,” — IMD
What's Next – Ongoing Monitoring and Alerts
The IMD will continue issuing bulletins, with yellow alerts for Karnataka through Oct 29 and red warnings for Odisha on Oct 28. State disaster authorities have instructed fishermen to stay ashore from Oct 26 to Oct 29. Port authorities maintain heightened readiness, and rescue teams remain on standby as the cyclone moves inland, potentially bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms to central and eastern states.