Full Breakdown
Labour’s Poll Surge and Reform UK’s Collapse in Andy Burnham’s First 100 Days
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
Since Andy Burnham became prime minister on July 20, Labour’s voting-intention rating has risen sharply while Reform UK’s support has fallen to a record low. The latest Ipsos poll conducted October 15–22 shows Labour at 32 %, the Conservatives at 24 %, and Reform UK at 20 %. A week-ending October 25 average puts Labour at 29 %, the highest since the end of 2024, with the Conservatives and Reform tied at 22 %.
Background & Context
Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, enjoyed a peak of over 30 % in mid-2025 and was the leading party in several polls from March 2025 to August 2025. Scandals—including a standards-commissioner investigation over a £5 million donation from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne and allegations of racism within the party—triggered a steady decline. Labour, under Burnham’s leadership, moved from 19 % in the week ending June 21 (a scheduled analysis) to a sustained mid-20s position after the Makerfield by-election and Burnham’s premiership.
Data & Statistics
- Ipsos (Oct 15–22): Labour 32 %, Conservatives 24 %, Reform 20 %
- Weekly average (Oct 25): Labour 29 %, Conservatives 22 %, Reform 22 %
- July 19: Labour 21 % (up 2 pts), Reform 24 % (down 3 pts)
- July 26: Labour 23 %
- Week to Aug 2: Labour 26 % (overtaking Reform 24 %)
- Polls after Burnham’s first 100 days: Labour leads Reform by 12 pts and the Conservatives by 4 pts (Find Out Now, More In Common)
- Youth support (18-24): Labour rose from 14 % to 32 %
Criticism & Opposition
- Reform UK’s deputy leader Richard Tice and Treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick are under police investigation, and party officials Dan Jukes and James Orr resigned after an ITV probe revealed alleged racism among candidates.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Some outlets report Reform UK at 20 % (Ipsos, Independent) while others cite a 19 % figure (Find Out Now). The discrepancy reflects differing sample sizes and weighting methods.
- No poll has yet quantified the impact of the upcoming Budget on voter intentions, leaving a gap in forecasting post-budget shifts.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The Government faces a challenging Budget this coming week and the lesson of the last year is that British politics is volatile,” — Mr Pedley, research director
- “Whilst the headline figures do show a striking change, they confirm a pattern we have been seeing in the underlying data for some time.” — Keiran Pedley, research director
What’s Next
- The government’s first Autumn Budget is scheduled for the week following the October 27 milestone of Burnham’s 100th day in office. Analysts expect the budget’s fiscal stance to influence the next round of polling, though the volatility noted by Ipsos suggests outcomes remain uncertain.