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Nate Silver Forecasts Democrats Win 240 House Seats in 2026

By Drooid · Oct 26, 2026, 11:16 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

Story summary

Statistician Nate Silver forecast Democrats will win 240 House seats and 52 Senate seats in the 2026 midterms.
Silver's FLIPR model gave Democrats a 95 % chance of winning the House.
Gasoline at $4.30 per gallon could push voters away from the Republican Party.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 37 %, the lowest for a president before a midterm since 1946.

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Story summary

Statistician Nate Silver forecast Democrats will win 240 House seats and 52 Senate seats in the 2026 midterms.
Silver's FLIPR model gave Democrats a 95 % chance of winning the House.
Gasoline at $4.30 per gallon could push voters away from the Republican Party.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 37 %, the lowest for a president before a midterm since 1946.