Story perspectives

Early Voting Starts for 2026 Midterms, Top States Report Millions

By Drooid · Oct 26, 2026, 11:23 PM UTC · How we work

Center

Early Vote Forecast Unreliable

Early voting for the 2026 U.S. midterms began, with millions of ballots in Texas, Florida, New York and other states.
Analysts say early-vote totals and polls cannot reliably forecast the Texas Senate race, noting historic three-to-five-point errors.
VoteHub head Zachary Donnini projects up to ten million Texas voters in the 2026 midterms.
Florida early voting produced more than 1.9 million ballots, with registered Democrats about 41 % of them.

Left

Florida Voting Threats

Early voting for the 2026 U.S. midterm elections began in Florida, Texas, New York, Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina and New Jersey.
Critics warn that newly drawn gerrymandered districts, the SAVE Act’s citizenship proof requirement, and CBP vehicle presence threaten voter access in Florida.
The Florida Department of State reports 1.6 million Floridians have voted early or mailed ballots.
Nationwide early-voting totals have exceeded 23 million, with Florida near 2.2 million and Texas over 2.8 million.

Blindspot

Federal Customs and Border Protection vehicles were observed outside an early-voting site in Leon County, Florida, raising concerns about federal presence at polling locations.
Within this story's sources, this angle appears mainly in Left-leaning coverage and receives less attention in Center-leaning coverage.

History

Historical Context

The Supreme Court’s 5-4 ruling in Shelby County v. Holder on June 25, 2013 struck down Section 4(b)’s coverage formula, ending federal preclearance for 19 Southern jurisdictions such as Texas and Florida. Without that oversight, states quickly enacted stricter ID rules and cut early-voting sites, contributing to today’s surge of about 23 million early-vote ballots and the deployment of CBP vehicles at a Florida polling place.

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Early Vote Forecast Unreliable

Early voting for the 2026 U.S. midterms began, with millions of ballots in Texas, Florida, New York and other states.
Analysts say early-vote totals and polls cannot reliably forecast the Texas Senate race, noting historic three-to-five-point errors.
VoteHub head Zachary Donnini projects up to ten million Texas voters in the 2026 midterms.
Florida early voting produced more than 1.9 million ballots, with registered Democrats about 41 % of them.

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