Full Breakdown
South Carolina Senate Race Tightens as Democrat Annie Andrews Challenges Incumbent Darline Graham
By Drooid · · How we work
The Contest: Andrews vs. Graham
Democrat Dr. Annie Andrews is vying for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Sen. Darline Graham in the most closely watched contest of the 2026 midterms. Both candidates are women, and the winner will be the first woman elected by South Carolina voters to the Senate. Early voting, fundraising, and multiple polls indicate a narrow margin as Election Day approaches on Nov 3.
Background & Context
Sen. Lindsey Graham died of an aortic dissection on July 11, 2026. Governor Henry McMaster appointed his sister, Darline Graham, to the vacant seat on July 13. She won a ten-candidate special primary on August 11 with roughly 32.7 % of the vote and defeated Congressman Ralph Norman in the August 25 runoff, securing about 52 % of ballots. President Donald Trump endorsed Darline Graham on July 17, posted a “Complete and Total Endorsement” on Truth Social, and held rallies in August at Myrtle Beach and on Oct 21 in Clemson.
Data & Statistics
- Polling: A Trafalgar Group poll released Oct 19 shows Graham leading 48.6 % to Andrews 45.6 % (±3 pts). An InsiderAdvantage survey conducted Sept 28–29 found a statistical tie at 46 % for Graham and 45 % for Andrews (±2.83 pts). The Pollsmax average, aggregating ten surveys through late October, places Graham at 46.9 % and Andrews at 45.2 % (1.7-point Republican lead).
- Fundraising: Third-quarter filings indicate Andrews has raised roughly $19.7 million overall, including a $9.4 million single-quarter haul, while Graham’s campaign raised about $2.4 million from July to September. The Senate Leadership Fund has pledged $5 million to assist Graham, and the data-center industry super PAC “Building the Future” has reserved $1.5 million for advertising on her behalf.
- Early-Voting Lead: Modeling of early voting through Oct 22 shows Andrews ahead of Graham by approximately 8 %, the margin needed to stay competitive on Election Day.
Official Statements & Responses
Former Republican Gov. David Beasley and former Democratic Gov. Jim Hodges have publicly challenged Andrews to release her tax returns. Data-center industry spokesman Jesse Hunt argued that candidates who promote AI-infrastructure investment “will win races.” President Trump’s endorsements and rallies have been framed as a personal investment in preserving his legacy in the state.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Annie understands that leadership isn’t about making people angrier,” — David Beasley
- “She’s willing to put people ahead of politics,” — Jim Hodges
- “Whether you voted for Donald Trump, Lindsey Graham, or anyone else, if you care more about lowering your bills than the political games in Washington, this campaign is for you,” — Dr. Annie Andrews
- “Candidates who make the case that A.I. infrastructure investment will bring good-paying jobs, economic opportunity, and new revenue to local communities, while putting responsible protections in place and earning local support, will win races,” — Jesse Hunt
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Poll results differ modestly: the Trafalgar poll shows a three-point Republican lead, the InsiderAdvantage survey reports a statistical tie, and the Pollsmax average indicates a narrower 1.7-point lead for Graham. No candidate has released full tax returns, and neither campaign has detailed how the data-center super PAC’s advertising will be targeted.
What’s Next
The race will be decided on Nov 3, when South Carolina voters cast ballots in a contest that will determine the state’s first elected female senator. Both campaigns are expected to intensify voter outreach and advertising in the final weeks leading up to the election.