Full Breakdown
US Midterms Could Influence Pakistan’s Growing Ties with Washington
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Election Stakes and Pakistan’s Preferred Outcome
The United States will hold its midterm elections on November 3.
Background & Context: Recent Diplomatic Milestones
Since Trump’s second term began, several high-profile engagements have reshaped the bilateral relationship. In March 2025 Trump thanked Pakistan for assisting in the arrest of a suspect in the 2021 Kabul airport bombing. A four-day war between India and Pakistan ended with a cease-fire on May 10, which Trump announced and Pakistan credited to his mediation, though India disputes the claim. Subsequent visits included a White House lunch with Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir—the first such meeting for a non-presidential Pakistani military leader. In July 2025 the United States cut tariffs on Pakistani exports from 29 % to 19 % and signed memoranda of understanding on minerals, cryptocurrency and drones. Pakistan also brokered a cease-fire between Washington and Tehran on April 8, hosting the first direct talks between the two sides since 1979, though the 60-day follow-up period expired in mid-August without extension.
Official Statements & Responses
Pakistan’s army chief Munir returned to Tehran on October 20, marking his fifth visit since the war began. Former U.S. national-security official Grace Wermenbol warned that the Iran conflict could flare again after the upcoming elections, while analyst Imran Khan cautioned that a weaker Trump might alter Pakistan’s short-term influence but would not erase its elevated geopolitical profile.
Data & Statistics
- U.S. tariff rate on Pakistani goods: 29 % -> 19 % (July 2025).
- Pew Research Center poll (Sept 28-Oct 4) placed Trump’s approval at 30 %, down from 37 % in January.
- The cease-fire between India and Pakistan held since May 10.
- Pakistan’s nomination of Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize was announced in October 2025.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Pakistan is now an important player that must be seen within the Middle East security framework,” — Qamar Cheema, executive director of the Islamabad-based Sanober Institute
- “Pakistan was able to bring the United States and Iran under one roof after 47 years,” — Qamar Cheema, executive director of the Islamabad-based Sanober Institute
- “But what it does not change is Pakistan’s amplified geopolitical profile globally, and its increasing national security and defence relevance in West Asia,” — Imran Khan, the analyst
These developments illustrate how Pakistan’s diplomatic visibility has risen under Trump, while the upcoming U.S. midterms present a pivotal moment that could reshape the trajectory of the partnership.