Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race Heats Up: Talarico vs. Paxton
By Drooid · · How we work
The Contest’s Current State
Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton are the final candidates for the U.S. Senate seat held by Sen. John Cornyn. Both campaigns are in the final weeks before Election Day on Nov. 3. Recent rallies in Lubbock, El Paso, Austin, San Antonio, Corpus Christi and other cities have drawn large crowds, and early-voting activity has surged statewide. A Fox News poll released in late October showed the two candidates tied at 49 % among likely Texas voters, while a CBS poll conducted Oct. 8-16 reported Talarico ahead 51-49.
Campaign Financing and Super PAC Influence
Filings indicate that Elon Musk contributed $158 million to a Republican super PAC, which transferred the same amount to a group supporting Paxton. A PayPal-founder-led “Lone Star Rising” super PAC has received multi-million donations for Talarico. The Wesleyan Media Project reports AI-generated political advertising spending has risen from under $50,000 in 2024 to more than $137 million this year, with 81 % coming from Republican-aligned campaigns.
Faith as a Campaign Battleground
Both candidates have framed the race around Christianity. Paxton’s “Pastors for Paxton” coalition lists 27 evangelical and charismatic leaders, while Talarico’s “Faithful Texans for Talarico” includes Christian, Jewish, Muslim and other faith representatives. Each side argues that its vision of Christianity better serves Texas voters.
Official Campaign Statements
Talarico emphasizes a “vision of Texas” that transcends party labels, urging focus on public-school excellence, a strong economy and affordable living. Paxton has urged Republicans to turn out early, describing voting as essential to “hold this state.”
Criticism and Opposition
Glenn Vallejo, a voter in Killeen, criticized Talarico for a past comment about “six sexes,” arguing that such statements are unsuitable for families.
On the Ground: Recent Rally Highlights
In Lubbock, Talarico’s rally moved to the Fiesta Center to accommodate demand. At the University of Texas at El Paso, Congresswoman Veronica Escobar welcomed Talarico, whose speech highlighted an “affordability crisis” and accused Paxton of a $200 million Musk-linked donation. At UT Austin, Talarico invoked the David-and-Goliath story, calling the campus his “slingshot.” In Corpus Christi, he used the same biblical analogy to frame corporate PACs as “Goliaths.”
Conflicting Polls and Information Gaps
The Fox News and CBS polls present divergent snapshots of voter preference, reflecting methodological differences that are not fully disclosed. While the Wesleyan Media Project reports massive Republican AI-ad spending, independent verification of the exact impact of those ads on voter attitudes remains unavailable.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Elon Musk wants our land. He wants our water. He wants our tax dollars,” — James Talarico (New York Times)
- “I want every single person in the room to early vote and spend the next 10 days, 12 days getting everyone out to the polls,” — Ken Paxton
What’s Next
Early voting will conclude later in October, and both campaigns plan intensified door-to-door outreach through the final week. Paxton’s “Come and Take It” bus tour will continue to rural and suburban venues, while Talarico’s “Clear Eyes, Full Hearts” tour will target university campuses and faith-based community centers. The decisive vote will be cast on Nov. 3.