Full Breakdown
Senate Races That Could Determine Control in the 2026 Midterm Elections
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Competitive Races
- Alaska: Incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan faces Democrat Mary Peltola and a second candidate also named Dan Sullivan, described by Republicans as a decoy. Peltola has raised $33 million, outpacing Sullivan’s $14 million, and holds $3.2 million in cash versus Sullivan’s $5.1 million. Recent polls show Peltola with a narrow lead.
- Iowa: With Republican Senator Joni Ernst retiring, the open seat pits Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson against Democrat state Rep. Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist. Turek has raised $20 million to Hinson’s $14 million; Hinson reports $3 million more cash on hand. Polls indicate a tight race with Hinson holding a slight edge.
- Kansas: Republican Senator Roger Marshall is challenged by Democrat Adam Hamilton. Hamilton has raised $14 million to Marshall’s $6 million and reports $3.2 million cash on hand versus Marshall’s $922,000. Recent polling shows Hamilton narrowly ahead.
- Maine: Republican Senator Susan Collins confronts Democrat Troy Jackson. Jackson has outraised Collins by more than $1.6 million, yet Collins retains a $1.1 million cash advantage. Polls show Jackson with a narrow lead or a tie.
- North Carolina: Open seat after Republican Thom Tillis’ retirement. Democrat Roy Cooper has raised $50 million and holds $9 million in the bank, while Republican Michael Whatley has raised $14 million and has about $900,000 cash. Polls give Cooper a double-digit lead.
- Ohio: Democrat Sherrod Brown seeks to reclaim a seat held by appointed Republican Jon Husted. By October 14, Brown had raised $68 million—more than triple Husted’s $20 million—and both campaigns report just over $4 million cash. Recent polls place Brown 3–5 points ahead.
- Texas: Democrat James Talarico challenges Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Talarico has outraised Paxton by $110 million and, as of September 30, holds $9.6 million more cash. Polls show Talarico narrowly leading or tied.
- Michigan: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed runs against Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers. El-Sayed has raised $45 million, more than double Rogers’ $21 million, though Rogers began October with $6.5 million cash to El-Sayed’s $3.8 million. Polls indicate a slim El-Sayed lead.
- New Hampshire: Democrat Chris Pappas faces Republican John Sununu. Pappas has raised $24 million to Sununu’s $6 million and enjoys a modest $200,000 cash edge. Recent surveys give Pappas a 5–8-point advantage.
Background & Context
The Senate sits at a 53-47 Republican majority. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. Voter discontent over President Donald Trump’s 2024 performance, the Iran war, and rising prices has turned several historically Republican states into battlegrounds.
Official Statements & Responses
- Rep. Ashley Hinson (IA) called for an “immediate end” to the Iran war.
- Sen. Susan Collins (ME) noted she is not President Trump’s favorite and that he did not visit Maine.
- Ken Paxton (TX) received a $158 million contribution from a super PAC funded by Elon Musk.
- Roy Cooper (NC) highlighted his fundraising advantage as a sign of broad voter support.
- Sherrod Brown (OH) cited working-class frustration with the Iran war and inflation as campaign drivers.
Criticism & Opposition
What’s Next
The November 2026 midterm elections will determine the Senate’s balance of power. Campaigns continue fundraising through mid-October, and final polls are expected in the weeks before Election Day.