Polls Show Tight Race Ahead of Israel’s 2026 Election

Two days before Israelis head to the polls for the 26th Knesset, four recent surveys—conducted by Channel 12, Channel 13, Channel 14 and Maariv—present a fragmented picture. The illustration of the poll average was shared on October 25, 2026. Across the polls, former security chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party holds a narrow lead over Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud, but neither the opposition nor the governing bloc reaches the 61 seats required for a majority.

The Jerusalem Post

The final Maariv poll shows Ofer Winter’s People of Israel at 3 % of the vote, just below the 3.25 % electoral threshold, while the joint Reservists Party and Economic Party list garners 3.10 %, also falling short. A poll published by Israel’s public broadcaster KAN 11 reports the same three parties—Winter’s list, the Haredi Public Party (1.3 %) and the Noam Party—under the threshold. The Channel 12 poll records the Hendel-Zelekha list at 2.4 % and Winter’s at 2.5 %, confirming their exclusion from the Knesset.

The Jerusalem Post

According to the Channel 13 poll, the opposition’s “change bloc” holds 54 seats versus 48 for Netanyahu’s bloc. The Channel 12 poll places the opposition at 56 seats and the governing bloc at 50. The average of the four polls estimates the opposition bloc at 54 seats and Netanyahu’s bloc at 49.5 seats. Within Netanyahu’s coalition, Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit averages 7.75 seats, while Shas and United Torah Judaism each average 7.5 seats. The Religious Zionist Party–Zehut list averages seven seats.

The Jerusalem Post

With both blocs falling short of a parliamentary majority, coalition-building will require negotiations with smaller parties, including the Arab Joint List (average 9 seats) and the Ra’am party (average 5.5 seats). The narrow lead of Yashar and the failure of several minor parties to cross the threshold underscore the uncertainty surrounding the next government’s composition.

The Jerusalem Post