Potential Senate Fight Over Alaska’s Senate Seat

The 2024 Alaska Senate race pits incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan against Democrat former Rep. Mary Peltola. If Alaska’s governor and lieutenant governor certify Peltola as the winner, President Donald Trump is expected to urge Republican senators to object to her seating, creating the prospect of a contentious floor debate before the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3 2025. Senate Democratic aides have said “everybody is gaming everything” in anticipation of possible Republican objections.

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Recent polling shows a narrow Democratic edge. Surveys by Data for Progress, InsiderAdvantage and Alaska Survey Research place Peltola ahead by two points, while a New York Times/Siena poll conducted late September to early October shows a seven-point lead. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system could further affect the final tally.

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Alaska’s Division of Elections, led by the Republican lieutenant governor, initially removed “Dan J. Sullivan” from the ballot; a state judge and the Alaska Supreme Court later reinstated him, resulting in a ballot that lists the incumbent as “Dan S. Sullivan” and his opponent as “Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.” Legal scholars note that state officials would be required to certify any narrow Peltola victory, and that refusal to do so could be overturned by the courts.

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The Senate has precedent for contested certifications. In 1997, Republicans unsuccessfully challenged Democrat Mary Landrieu’s Louisiana win, and in 2009 a similar stalemate was resolved after the Minnesota Supreme Court affirmed Al Franken’s victory. The Justice Department recently filed a lawsuit to block Alaska’s certification if Sullivan loses, but legal experts have broadly dismissed the suit as meritless.

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Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is described by Democratic senators as a “straight shooter” unlikely to reject a certified result, though he would face pressure if Trump pushes objections. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) is expected to negotiate with Thune should an objection arise. Sarah Binder, a Senate rules expert at George Washington University, warned that Trump’s “single-minded persistence” could lead to “a nasty Senate floor fight” with no clear procedural pathway.

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• “They’ve set up the argument already that there’s a deliberate deception on the part of the other Dan Sullivan, and even though this seems to have been adjudicated in Alaska law, they will certainly argue the issue of fairness remains,” — Steven S. Smith, a professor of political science at Arizona State University

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• “This is really a question of Trump-backed Republicans, and I think with Trump probably urging them to exploit every opening, the certification of the Democrat will lead to a Republican challenge if they’re in a position in the Senate to do so,” — Steven S. Smith, a professor of political science at Arizona State University

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