Full Breakdown
Trump’s Approval Slips to Record Lows Ahead of the 2026 Midterms
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Approval Ratings Near Record Lows
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Oct 26 2026 found President Donald Trump’s public approval at 32 percent, a one-point rise from the previous week’s record low. The same five-day survey showed Democrats leading Republicans by 11 points on the generic congressional ballot (47 % vs 36 %). Among likely voters, the gap narrowed to 9 points (50 % Democrats vs 41 % Republicans).
Background & Context
Trump entered his second term with higher approval, but a February 2024 military strike on Iran triggered higher gasoline prices and a surge in inflation. Cost-of-living concerns now dominate voter sentiment, with 73 % of respondents saying their cost of living is heading in the wrong direction.
Data & Statistics
- Reuters/Ipsos: 32 % approval, 58 % disapproval (Oct 26).
- RealClearPolitics average (Oct 19): 38.2 % approval, 60.3 % disapproval.
- Ballotpedia: 37 % approval.
- Quinnipiac: 34 % approval.
- Civiqs (Jan 2025 – Oct 2026): net approval -26 % nationally; positive net approval in only ten states, strongest in North Dakota (+17) and Wyoming (+15).
- NYT/Siena Midwest poll (Oct 12-19): 38 % approval, 57 % disapproval—a 19-point deficit, the first underwater reading for the region this term.
Why It Matters / Impact
Low presidential approval typically depresses the incumbent party’s down-ballot performance. The generic-ballot gap and Midwest underwater ratings could make Republican Senate races in Michigan, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas especially vulnerable. In Maine, Trump-backed tariff relief for lobster and agricultural products is being used to offset his unpopularity, showing how candidates may distance themselves from the president’s brand.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls diverge: Reuters/Ipsos reports 32 % approval, while the Economist/YouGov shows 41 %. State-level net approvals from Civiqs lack margin-of-error data, limiting confidence in precise rankings. The Siena Midwest survey provides no separate sample size or error margin for its regional subgroup, making the 19-point deficit a directional indicator rather than a precise forecast.
Verbatim Quotes
- “It is a warning sign, not a closed door,” — John Thomas, GOP strategist and pollster.
What’s Next
The November 3 2026 midterm elections will decide control of the House and Senate. Generic-ballot trends and regional approval gaps will continue to shape campaign strategies as parties finalize messaging in the final weeks before Election Day.