Full Breakdown
Recent Polls Show Abdul El-Sayed Leading Michigan’s 2026 U.S. Senate Race
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Context of the 2026 Michigan Senate Contest
Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are vying to replace retiring Democratic senator Gary Peters in the 2026 midterm election. The race has attracted multiple surveys since early October, all indicating that El-Sayed maintains a lead, though the gap has narrowed as Election Day approaches.
Poll Numbers and Margins
- A WDIV/Detroit News telephone poll found 51.4% of likely voters would choose El-Sayed today, versus 45.1% for Rogers; 3.6% remained undecided.
- The Marist poll (mid-October) reported 52% support for El-Sayed and 45% for Rogers among registered voters, and a 50%-48% split among likely voters.
- InsiderAdvantage’s late-October survey showed 47% for El-Sayed and 46% for Rogers, within a ±2.83-point margin.
- Rasmussen’s early-October poll recorded 46% for El-Sayed and 44% for Rogers (±3 points).
- Quantus Insights (early October) gave 47.6% to El-Sayed and 46.5% to Rogers (±7.8 points).
- YouGov’s September-early-October poll listed 49% for El-Sayed and 48% for Rogers (±2.5 points).
Real Clear Politics’ aggregate of six October polls shows El-Sayed ahead by 1.9 percentage points, a slight contraction from the previous 2.6-point advantage. All six individual October surveys rank El-Sayed ahead of Rogers.
Survey Methodology
The WDIV/Detroit News poll was conducted by The Glengariff Group, Inc. using a 600-respondent live-operator telephone sample collected in mid-October. The survey employed a 95 % confidence level with a ±4.0 percentage-point margin of error; 15 % of calls were landline and 85 % cellphone. Other polls cited similar sample sizes and confidence levels, each reporting their own margins of error.
Election Outlook
With the ballot slated for the first Tuesday of November, the compiled polling suggests El-Sayed holds a modest but consistent lead over Rogers. The narrowing margins across recent surveys indicate a competitive environment, and the final outcome will depend on voter turnout and any late-campaign developments.