Israeli Election Exit Polls Reveal Deadlock and Historic Arab Gains

On the night of October 27, 2026, Israel’s three major broadcasters—Kan 11, Channel 12 and Channel 13—released exit-poll results indicating that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc nor the opposition bloc led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot secured the 61 seats required for a governing majority in the 120-member Knesset. Netanyahu’s Likud was projected to win 24–25 seats, while Eisenkot’s Yashar party was expected to obtain 21–23 seats. The two Arab parties, the Joint List and Ra’am, were projected to capture a combined 17–18 seats, a substantial increase from the five seats each held in the outgoing parliament.

BreitbartThe Media LineYnetNewsThe Jerusalem PostAl MonitorExit polls show anti-Netanyahu bloc edges ahead in Israeli election Times of Israel

The election is the first since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks and the subsequent wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Historically, Arab parties have struggled to surpass the electoral threshold; their projected surge now positions them as potential kingmakers. The Central Elections Committee reported a turnout of 77.7 %—the highest since 1999—reflecting a marked rise in Arab-Israeli participation.

The Jerusalem Post

• Netanyahu bloc: 50 seats (all three polls)

Exit polls show anti-Netanyahu bloc edges ahead in Israeli election

• Opposition bloc: 52–53 seats

YnetNews

• Likud: 24–25 seats

YnetNews

• Yashar: 21–23 seats

The Media Line

• Joint List: 10–11 seats

YnetNews

• Ra’am: 7 seats

The Jerusalem Post

• Combined Arab parties: 17–18 seats

YnetNews

• Turnout: 77.7 % overall; 80 % among Arab voters (Channel 12)

Israel sees highest turnout since 1999 as Arab parties surge in exit polls

• Joint List chairman Prof. Yousef Jabareen called the election a “historic day,” asserting that the “blood-stained government must go.”

Al Monitor

• Netanyahu’s office warned that high Arab turnout could lead to a “government of the Arab parties,” urging his supporters to vote urgently.

Netanyahu warns of high Arab voter turnout, urges Likud supporters to vote in Israeli elections

• Ra’am described recent police arrests as “baseless” and a political maneuver by National-Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.

The Jerusalem Post

• Yair Golan of the Democrats responded to a knife-attack at a polling station, saying, “Incitement and violence will not intimidate us,” and blamed the incident on Netanyahu’s “poison machine.”

Israel exit polls show opposition edge, Arab parties make gains

• “The preliminary poll results point to complete distrust in Netanyahu,” — Gadi Eisenkot

Al Monitor

• “We will transform the seats we have won into a new reality in the country.” — Mansour Abbas, Ra’am chairman

Al Monitor

Exit-poll projections differ on several key figures:

Israel sees highest turnout since 1999 as Arab parties surge in exit polls

• Arab party totals range from 17 seats (Channel 13) to 18 seats (Channel 12).

YnetNews

• Likud’s seat count varies between 24 (Channel 12) and 25 (Channel 13 and Kan 11).

The Media Line

• The opposition bloc’s total is reported as 52 seats (Channel 12) versus 53 seats (Channel 13).

YnetNews

The Central Elections Committee will continue counting, with special “double-envelope” ballots—estimated at over 650,000—requiring separate verification. Preliminary official results are expected overnight, and the final tally is scheduled for November 4. President Isaac Herzog will then consult the elected factions to appoint a Knesset member tasked with forming a coalition, a process that could extend up to 28 days with a possible 14-day extension. If no viable coalition emerges, a repeat election may be called, leaving Israel in a prolonged period of political uncertainty.

Breitbart