Minnesota Senate Race Heats Up as Open Seat Draws National Attention

Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and Republican former sportscaster Michele Tafoya are vying to succeed Senator Tina Smith, whose term ends on January 3. The race has shifted from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic” in the Cook Political Report, reflecting a tightening margin in recent polls. With no incumbent, both candidates rely on name recognition—Flanagan from her statewide office and Smith’s endorsement, Tafoya from her broadcasting career and a Trump endorsement.

Newsweek

Minnesota has voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 1976 and has not elected a Republican senator since 2002. Analysts cite three factors that make the race competitive: the open seat eliminates incumbent advantages; the Cook downgrade, citing a state-wide welfare-fraud scandal and Flanagan’s “underwhelming” poll numbers; and “Democratic Party fatigue” after more than a decade of single-party rule.

Newsweek

• Peggy Flanagan – Democratic Lieutenant Governor, first Indigenous woman elected to statewide office in Minnesota.

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• Michele Tafoya – Republican former sportscaster, endorsed by former President Donald Trump.

St. Peter Herald

• Tina Smith – Democratic senator retiring at the end of her term.

Newsweek

• Tim Walz – Democratic governor whose administration faces criticism over a COVID-era nutrition-program fraud scheme.

Newsweek

• Fundraising (Q3 2026): Tafoya $4.3 million; Flanagan $3.8 million.

St. Peter Herald

• Polls: RealClearPolitics aggregate shows Flanagan ahead by 2 points; InsiderAdvantage poll (Sept. 28-29) shows a 1-point lead (46 % vs 45 %); Quantus Insights poll (Sept. 8-10) shows a 4-point lead (49 % vs 45 %).

Newsweek

• Prediction markets: Flanagan holds an 84 % chance on Kalshi and 86 % on Polymarket.

Newsweek

• Fraud scandal cost: Estimates range from $250 million to $1 billion to taxpayers.

Newsweek

• Tafoya’s third-quarter haul makes her the only Republican in a 2026 Senate race to out-raise the Democratic opponent.

Newsweek

Flanagan told CBS News she is “incredibly angry with the fraud” and supports an independent Office of Inspector General and harsher penalties. Tafoya has linked Flanagan to the scandal, calling the governor’s office a “massive failure” and arguing that “the buck stops with him.”

Newsweek

David Schultz, a Hamline University professor, warns that “fatigue” with long-standing Democratic rule may drive voters toward a Republican outsider.

Newsweek

Poll aggregates differ: a 2-point lead, a 1-point lead, and a 4-point lead appear across three surveys within three weeks. Prediction-market odds favor Flanagan, yet acknowledge volatility. No source provides a definitive projection of voter turnout, leaving uncertainty about how rural gains for Republicans will balance metropolitan strength for Democrats.

Newsweek

• “What's hard to figure out right now is whether or not Minnesota is going to be a referendum on Donald Trump or a referendum on the Democrats,” — David Schultz, Hamline University

Newsweek

• “My closing message to every Minnesotan is simple: you deserve leaders who put you first.” — Michele Tafoya

St. Peter Herald

Early voting is underway statewide, and both campaigns are intensifying outreach as Election Day approaches in early November.

St. Peter Herald