Ohio Races Shift to Lean Democratic in Fox News Power Rankings

Fox News’ latest power-rankings, released on Tuesday, moved the Ohio U.S. Senate race and the Ohio governor’s race from “toss-up” to “Lean Democratic.” The change follows recent polls that show Democratic candidates Sherrod Brown and Amy Acton holding modest leads over Republican incumbents Jon Husted and Vivek Ramaswamy.

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Ohio has trended rightward over the past decade, voting for Donald Trump in all three of his presidential campaigns after supporting Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. Declines in Trump’s approval rating—linked by analysts to concerns about the economy and foreign-policy setbacks—have revived the state’s swing-state reputation.

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• Senate race: RealClearPolitics’ aggregate shows Brown ahead of Husted by 3.3 points. An InsiderAdvantage poll (Oct 21-22) found Brown up 2.3 points (46.7 % to 44.4 %). A Fox News poll (Oct 15-19) gave Brown a 5-point lead (52 % to 47 %).

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• Governor race: Fox News polling shows Acton leading Ramaswamy by 2 points (50 % to 48 %). Marist University’s poll (Oct 15-18) gave Acton a 7-point advantage (50 % to 43 %).

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• Prediction markets: On Kalshi, Acton’s chance of winning rose to 82 %; on Polymarket, it reached 84 %, up from roughly 60 % a month earlier.

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• Mike DeWine, Ohio governor, called the Ramaswamy ad “wrong” and urged its removal.

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• J.D. Vance, U.S. senator, said he was “a little bit disgusted” that Republicans focus on the ad rather than policy issues.

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• Meghan McCain, political commentator, labeled the ad “dastardly” on social media.

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Republican leaders, including Governor DeWine and Senator Vance, condemned the ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother, Donna Arthur. McCain’s criticism echoed broader bipartisan disapproval, describing the tactic as “dastardly.” The backlash has been cited as a factor in the narrowing of Ramaswamy’s poll numbers and the upward movement of Acton in the rankings.

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Poll margins differ across surveys: Brown’s lead ranges from 2.3 to 5 points, while Acton’s advantage varies from 2 to 7 points. The Fox News ranking now lists the Senate race as “Lean Democratic,” whereas the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball continue to label it a “toss-up.” No definitive data are provided on how the ad’s removal or further campaign adjustments might alter future polling.

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The reclassification signals that Ohio, once a reliable Republican stronghold, may become competitive in the 2026 midterms. A Democratic edge in both statewide races could influence national control of the Senate and shape the broader narrative of a “blue wave” driven by economic concerns and shifting voter attitudes toward the GOP. The episode also illustrates how campaign tactics—particularly negative ads involving personal family matters—can affect candidate viability and party cohesion.

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