Full Breakdown
Democrats Projected to Secure Up to Ten Knesset Seats in 2026 Election
By Drooid · · How we work
In this breakdown
01
Core Event: Exit-poll projections for the Democrats
Exit polls released by Channels 11, 12 and 13 on the night of the October 27, 2026 election projected the newly formed Democrats party to win nine to ten seats in the 120-member Knesset. The same polls gave the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas (six to eight seats) and United Torah Judaism (six to seven seats), a combined 12-15 seats that could be decisive for any governing coalition.
02
Background & Context: Formation and platform of the Democrats
The Democrats were created in July 2024 through a merger of the Labor Party and Meretz, aiming to unite the Israeli left under a liberal-democratic Zionist banner. Led by former deputy IDF chief of staff Maj.-Gen. (res.) Yair Golan, the party campaigned on “fundamental change,” pledging legislation to bar politicians under criminal indictment from serving as prime minister or cabinet minister, supporting the judiciary and Attorney-General Gali Baharav-Miara, and separating religion from state (civil marriage, Shabbat business operations). The platform also opposed West Bank annexation, called for a demilitarized Palestinian state, and promised to curtail Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s civil-administration powers in the West Bank.
03
Data & Statistics: Projected seat count and coalition implications
- Democrats: 9–10 seats (exit polls) – compared with 4 seats in the outgoing 25th Knesset.
- Shas: 6–8 seats (exit polls).
- United Torah Judaism: 6–7 seats (exit polls).
- Combined Shas/UTJ seats: 12–15, potentially enough to help Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reach the 61-seat majority.
The Democrats’ projected increase from four seats positions them as a potential kingmaker, especially given their stated refusal to join a coalition led by Netanyahu or to sit alongside Smotrich, Ben-Gvir or ultra-Orthodox parties.
04
Official Statements & Responses: Golan’s reaction and coalition stance
Following the exit-poll release, Yair Golan posted on X that “the public has spoken” and declared that the electorate had “fired Netanyahu and the Likud.” He urged opposition leaders to form a new government quickly, warning that delays could jeopardize Israel’s security.
05
Verbatim Quotes
- “We have been given a historic opportunity to establish a genuine government of change in Israel, and we have no intention of giving it up,” — Yair Golan, democrats party chairman
- “Netanyahu's government has collapsed. Netanyahu's bloc has fallen to a low of 50 seats and has lost its majority in Israel.” — The State
06
What’s Next: Coalition negotiations
With the Democrats projected to hold up to ten seats and Shas/UTJ holding a potential 12–15 seats, coalition talks are expected to intensify in the weeks after the election. The Democrats have signaled they will only join a government that excludes Netanyahu’s bloc and that includes Arab parties, setting a clear condition for any prospective coalition arrangement.