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No BOJ rate hike expected October 2026, 83% see December

By Drooid · Oct 28, 2026, 15:24 UTC · How we work

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Summary

Analysts expect the Bank of Japan to leave interest rates unchanged at the October 2026 policy board meeting.
Tsuyoshi Ueno of NLI Research Institute says conditions do not justify a consecutive or large rate hike.
A Bloomberg poll found zero respondents anticipating a rate increase at the October meeting.
About 83% of poll respondents expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates in December 2026.

Summary

Wage growth rose 1.5% YoY in August, the eighth consecutive monthly increase.
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama told lawmakers Japan is on the cusp of sustained inflation driven by wages.
Core CPI, excluding fresh foods, rose 2.1% YoY in September, the highest this year.
Masato Koike (SOMPO Institute Plus) expects the Bank of Japan to halt hikes near 1.75% as rates reach neutral 2%.

Summary

Nine analysts forecast the yen will trade between 157 and 158 per dollar next month.
State Street Investment Management strategist Masahiko Loo says BOJ normalization and yields could narrow the rate differential.
Loo adds that high U.S. Treasury yields may limit a straightforward yen rally.
Safe-haven buying after an AI-stock sell-off pushed the yen up and bond yields down last week.

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Bank of Japan Holds

Analysts expect the Bank of Japan to leave interest rates unchanged at the October 2026 policy board meeting.
Tsuyoshi Ueno of NLI Research Institute says conditions do not justify a consecutive or large rate hike.
A Bloomberg poll found zero respondents anticipating a rate increase at the October meeting.
About 83% of poll respondents expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates in December 2026.

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