Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race Tightens: Paxton vs. Talarico Amid Record Early Voting
By Drooid · · How we work
In this breakdown
01
Historical Context
Ken Paxton, Texas attorney general, is seeking the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican John Cornyn. His opponent, state Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat from Austin, has surged in polls, making the race unusually competitive in a state that has voted Republican in every statewide contest since the 1990s. The contest follows scandals surrounding Paxton, including a 2015 felony indictment, a 2023 impeachment trial and ongoing accusations of ethical misconduct.
02
Key Candidates
- Ken Paxton – Texas attorney general, former state senator, known for aggressive lawsuits against the federal government.
- James Talarico – State representative, Democrat, campaigning on affordability, immigration reform and reproductive rights.
Visual evidence
Images from the story
03
Polling Landscape
Two recent polls illustrate volatility. A Fox News poll in October found Paxton and Talarico tied at 49 % among likely voters. An N+ Univision/YouGov poll released on Tuesday showed Talarico at 50 % and Paxton at 45 %. The divergence underscores uncertainty as Election Day approaches.
04
Early Voting Trends
Early voting began on Oct 19 and runs through Oct 30. Record-breaking turnout has been reported, with early-voting data “seeming to favor Democrats” so far. More than two-thirds of Texans typically use early voting, but the final composition of the electorate remains unclear. Some experts warn that early numbers may shift dramatically in the final days of the voting window.
05
Criticism of Ken Paxton
A Republican official who worked with Paxton described staff turnover, stating, “These were upstanding people that Ken Paxton himself had hired because of their conservative bona fides. And yet they all left stating, ‘I don’t want to have anything to do with this guy.’” A former adviser added, “How hard is it for anybody, any Republican, to go into the A.G.’s office and sue the president of the opposing party?”
06
On-the-Ground Perspectives
In Lubbock, three Texas Tech roommates illustrate how the race divides everyday voters. Isabella, an oil-and-gas major, argues that Republican policies are essential for the energy sector. Kate, a first-time voter, supports Talarico for his stance on abortion rights and targeted immigration enforcement. Candy, 21, cites soaring gas prices and cost of living as reasons to back Talarico, while acknowledging uncertainty about a statewide shift. All three stress that personal relationships should transcend political differences.
07
Conflicting Polls & Data Gaps
The Fox News poll’s 49-49 tie conflicts with the N+ Univision/YouGov poll’s 50-45 lead for Talarico. Early-voting data cannot yet be linked to specific candidate support, leaving analysts unable to confirm whether the apparent Democratic advantage will translate into actual votes. The lack of granular, candidate-specific early-voting numbers is a key information gap.
08
Verbatim Quotes
- “I’ve been doing this stuff for a week and a half, two weeks. I did more rallies than I’ve ever done for myself,” — Donald Trump
- “We need that vote. Otherwise, all of the great things we’ve done are going to change very quickly,” — Donald Trump
- “We have an affordability crisis because we have a corruption crisis. But we can change that in this election,” — James Talarico
- “Republicans know just as well as Democrats that there is no place for guys like Ken Paxton in Texas,” — James Talarico
09
What’s Next
Early voting concludes on Oct 30, after which the remaining ballots will be counted leading up to Election Day, scheduled a week later. The final outcome will determine whether Texas retains its long-standing Republican Senate seat or flips to Democratic control for the first time in decades.