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Full Breakdown

Independent Senate Runs in Red States: Democrats Back Independents in Nebraska and Montana

By Drooid · · How we work

In this breakdown

01

Core Event – Independent Senate Campaigns in Nebraska and Montana

Independent candidates Dan Osborn in Nebraska and Seth Bodnar in Montana are running for U.S. Senate seats in states President Trump carried. Both say they will not caucus with either major party if elected. The Nebraska Democratic Party has endorsed Osborn, and a faction of Montana Democrats backs Bodnar, hoping the independents can deny Republican incumbents a Senate majority.

02

Background & Context

Democrats are targeting “working-family” alternatives in red states after Trump-era policies left many rural voters uneasy. In Nebraska there is no Democratic Senate nominee; in Montana the Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead faces pressure to withdraw. In 2022 Osborn lost to incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fischer by seven points, showing an independent can be competitive. Four independents are on ballots in states Trump won—Nebraska, Idaho, South Dakota and Montana.

03

Data & Statistics

  • Four independent Senate candidates are running in states that voted for Trump in 2022.
  • Osborn’s 2022 margin: lost to Fischer by seven points.
  • Nebraska ballot: only Osborn and Republican Pete Ricketts.
  • Montana ballot: Bodnar, Democrat Alani Bankhead, and a Republican.

04

Official Statements & Responses

Nebraska Democratic Party chair Jane Kleeb said supporting an independent “is right” when the candidate appears better positioned to win and that the goal is to rebuild a competitive base.

In Montana, former Governor Brian Schweitzer argued the independent splits the anti-Republican vote, while former Senator Jon Tester and former Governor Steve Bullock have endorsed Bodnar, citing the potential power of an independent bloc in a closely divided Senate.

Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts has run ads labeling Osborn “Democrat Dan,” a label Osborn mocked by suggesting a third podium at a debate.

05

Criticism & Opposition

  • Conservative accusations: Voter Sue McNeil (Loup County) said the “Democrat Dan” label is meant to scare voters; Rich Sherbeck (Ansley) called Osborn “a fraud” and a “DSA-aligned” Democrat; Casey Stengel (Thedford) expressed skepticism that a single independent could “fix the deal.”

06

On-the-Ground Reports

Sue McNeil, a lifelong Republican, supports Osborn because of frustration with the Trump administration and rising fuel prices. Sherbeck and Stengel view Osborn as a disguised Democrat. Sam Gringlas reported a polarized atmosphere at town halls across both states.

07

Conflicting Reports & Gaps

Alani Bankhead alleged the Democratic National Committee offered her a job if she withdrew from the Montana race; the DNC denied any such offer. Bankhead described “subtle” pressure from unnamed party officials but provided no independent verification.