Full Breakdown
Bass-Raman Mayoral Race Dead-Heat in Late-Stage Poll
By Drooid · · How we work
In this breakdown
01
Core Event
A new University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, finds incumbent Mayor Karen Bass and challenger Nithya Raman locked at roughly 40 % support among likely Los Angeles voters. The poll, fielded online in mid-October with a sample of 2,197 respondents, shows 19 % of voters still undecided. This marks a dramatic swing from a September poll that gave Raman a double-digit lead and left a third of voters undecided.
02
Background & Recent Campaign Activity
Raman, a former ally of Bass and a city councilmember, placed second to Bass in the June primary with 34 % of the vote, while reality-TV star Spencer Pratt captured 25.5 %. Since the primary, both campaigns have deployed heavy advertising; Raman’s team highlights Bass’s low favorability, while Bass’s allies have poured millions into attack ads. The latest poll follows a recent debate hosted by local broadcasters and reflects a notable shift among conservative-leaning Pratt voters, many of whom now favor Bass.
03
Data & Statistics
- Support: Bass ? 40 %; Raman ? 40 % (margin of error ~3 %).
- Undecided voters: 19 % (down from 33 % in the September poll).
- Pratt voter split in the latest poll: 41 % backing Bass, 14 % backing Raman, 45 % still undecided.
- Favorability: 65 % of respondents view Bass unfavorably, a rise from 64 % a month earlier; 32 % hold a positive view, up from 28 %.
- Latino voter preference: Raman leads with 43 % support versus Bass’s 40 %.
- Top issue for voters: Reducing homeless encampments (43 % of respondents), with public safety and affordable housing each at 29 %.
04
Official Statements & Impact
Raman’s campaign framed the poll as evidence that Bass’s popularity continues to decline and emphasized the mayor’s poor favorability among Latino voters. Bass’s team, while not directly commenting on the numbers, has continued to stress her record on public safety and housing. The tight race suggests the November runoff will hinge on persuading the remaining undecided electorate and could reshape policy priorities in a city grappling with homelessness, safety concerns, and housing affordability.