Full Breakdown
South Carolina Senate Race Tightens as Polls Show Graham-Andrews Tie
By Drooid · · How we work
In this breakdown
01
Background & Context
Senator Lindsey Graham’s death in July 2026 created a vacancy that Governor Henry McMaster filled by appointing Graham’s sister, Darline Graham, to the U.S. Senate. President Donald Trump publicly backed the appointment and urged Darline to run for a full term. The brief incumbency drew criticism from some Republicans, including former primary opponent Rep. Ralph Norman, who declined to campaign for her and called her “a fraud of a candidate.”
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Recent Polls Indicate a Neck-and-Neck Contest
A New York Times–Siena University poll of 707 likely voters conducted in mid-October found Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews each at 48 percent, with 3 percent undecided. Men favored Graham 55-40, women favored Andrews 54-43, and independents backed Andrews 57-37.
The South Carolina Policy Council Fall Poll, fielded by Targoz Market Research and reported later in October, placed Graham at 47 percent and Andrews at 46 percent, with 4 percent undecided.
An InsiderAdvantage poll from late September of 1,200 likely voters showed Graham at 46 percent and Andrews at 45 percent, with third-party candidates at 5 percent combined.
The Cook Political Report rates the race “lean Republican,” while Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved it from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican” and then to “Lean Republican” over the past weeks.
Visual evidence
Images from the story
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Data & Statistics
- Siena poll issue preferences: 51 percent said Andrews would handle the economy better, 43 percent said Graham; on immigration, 50 percent favored Graham, 44 percent Andrews; on serving ordinary South Carolinians, 49 percent chose Andrews, 46 percent Graham.
- Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Trump’s approval among likely voters at 32 percent, with 46 percent strongly disapproving.
- Reuters reported outside Republican groups have spent roughly $9.7 million on South Carolina advertising since early October.
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Official Statements & Responses
Political science professor D. Stephen Voss noted that polls have been trending toward Democrats and that most voters have likely decided by late October. Grant Davis Reeher, a political-science professor at Syracuse University, suggested a “sympathy” vote among Republicans could still give Graham an edge in the final days.
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Criticism & Opposition
Former GOP congressman Ralph Norman, who lost to Graham in the special primary, refused to campaign for her and described her candidacy as fraudulent. Former Republican governor David Beasley endorsed Andrews, joining Democrat Jim Hodges in a joint ad supporting the pediatrician. These intra-party divisions underscore the vulnerability of the Republican ticket in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1998.
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Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ on the exact margin: Siena shows a tie, the South Carolina Policy Council poll gives Graham a one-point lead, and InsiderAdvantage shows a one-point lead for Graham. All three polls have overlapping margins of error, preventing a definitive frontrunner determination. Sources provide limited information on early-voting turnout and demographic breakdowns beyond gender and party affiliation.
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What’s Next
President Donald Trump is slated to headline a rally for Graham in Rock Hill later this month, his third South Carolina visit ahead of the midterms. Election Day is set for early November, when voters will decide whether the seat remains Republican or flips to Democrat Annie Andrews. Both campaigns continue heavy advertising as early voting proceeds, and the final outcome will hinge on turnout among independents and the party base.