Crowley Leads Tiffany in Final Marquette Poll Ahead of Wisconsin Gubernatorial Election

The Marquette University Law School released its final pre-election poll on October 28, 2026. The survey, conducted October 14-22, interviewed 818 registered Wisconsin voters, of whom 668 were classified as “likely voters.” Among likely voters, 51 % said they would vote for Democrat David Crowley and 44 % for Republican Tom Tiffany, with 4 % undecided. Among all registered voters, Crowley led 47 % to Tiffany’s 44 %, while 9 % remained undecided. The margin of error was ±4.7 percentage points for likely voters and ±4.3 percentage points for the full registered-voter sample.

Marquette Poll Finds Crowley at 51%, Tiffany 44% Among Likely Voters

Earlier Marquette polls in September showed Crowley ahead 49 % to 46 % among likely voters and 46 % to 45 % among registered voters. The October results therefore represent the widest lead for Crowley since the poll series began, reflecting a modest gain of 2 percentage points among likely voters and a 1-point gain among the broader electorate.

Marquette Poll Finds Crowley at 51%, Tiffany 44% Among Likely Voters

• Independent voters: 56 % favored Crowley, 26 % favored Tiffany; undecided independents fell from 38 % to 18 %.

David Crowley leads Tom Tiffany in final Marquette poll before Election Day

• Favorability: Crowley’s favorable rating rose to 37 % (unfavorable 44 %, net -7). Tiffany’s favorable rating was 40 % (unfavorable 50 %, net -10).

Final Marquette Poll Puts Crowley Up 3 on Tiffany Among Registered Voters

• Issue perception: Voters identified Tiffany as stronger on tax cuts, while Crowley was seen as stronger on health-care affordability, education, and data-center policy.

Milwaukee Journal-Sentinal

• Enthusiasm: 57 % of Democrats said they were certain to vote, compared with 77 % of Republicans; the gap narrowed by one point since September.

Final Marquette Poll Puts Crowley Up 3 on Tiffany Among Registered Voters

• Turnout outlook: Higher turnout among less-certain voters would likely tighten the race, as Tiffany leads among “very likely” but not certain voters.

Marquette Poll Finds Crowley at 51%, Tiffany 44% Among Likely Voters

Poll director Charles Franklin emphasized that the lead remains within the poll’s margin of error and cautioned against over-interpreting national trends. He noted that President Donald Trump’s net favorability in Wisconsin had slipped to -24, yet Crowley’s advantage was far smaller than that figure, underscoring the importance of candidate-specific dynamics and state-level partisan identities. Franklin also highlighted that independent voters, who had been a swing factor, were now solidly favoring Crowley.

Milwaukee Journal-Sentinal

• “So, independents are coming in, they are making up their minds, and they’re going for Crowley pretty significantly,” — The Marquette

David Crowley leads Tom Tiffany in final Marquette poll before Election Day

• “If the president's now [24] points more unpopular than unpopular, why isn't David Crowley leading by [24] points? It's because the candidates themselves matter, and the state matters, and our partisan identities – which hold us to our parties in voting – are really powerful, even among Republicans who now disapprove of the president,” — Charles Franklin, poll director

Milwaukee Journal-Sentinal

Wisconsin’s gubernatorial election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. The final poll provides the last quantitative snapshot before voters head to the polls, and the race will be decided alongside contests for attorney general, state legislature, and other constitutional offices.

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