Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race Tightens as James Talarico Challenges Ken Paxton
By Drooid · · How we work
In this breakdown
01
The Contest in Focus
Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton are the final two candidates for the U.S. Senate seat from Texas. The election is scheduled for Nov 3, with early voting slated to close on Oct 30. Polls released in the last two weeks show the race essentially tied, and both campaigns have intensified statewide tours, including dueling rallies in Lubbock and a tamale-making stop in El Paso.
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02
Background & Context
No Democrat has won a Texas Senate seat since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. Paxton’s record includes a 2015 felony securities-fraud indictment and a 2023 impeachment by the Texas House. Talarico entered the race with a record-breaking fundraising haul and a platform centered on affordability and anti-corruption.
Visual evidence
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03
Official Statements & Responses
At a rally with former President Donald Trump, Paxton exclaimed, “Is it not awesome and amazing to be onstage with the greatest president in my lifetime?”
*Donald Trump* attacked Talarico as an “anti-gun extremist” and a “Talafreako,” while also claiming “They’ve got a lot of bad people” among Democrats.
04
On-the-Ground Reports
In Lubbock, several thousand waited for hours to see Talarico, with one attendee citing high gas, diesel, and inflation as motivators. In El Paso, Talarico helped prepare red-chile pork tamales at Gussie’s Tamales, a moment highlighted on his campaign’s social-media channels.
05
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ on the exact size of Talarico’s lead: the Fox News poll shows a dead-heat, while the Cook Political Report places him five points ahead. All polls fall within their margins of error, leaving the precise advantage uncertain. Fundraising figures are clear for cash on hand, but the impact of outside-group spending—$230 M for Paxton versus $94 M for Talarico—remains difficult to quantify.
06
What’s Next
Early voting concludes on Oct 30, and both campaigns will continue statewide outreach through the final week. Trump’s scheduled rallies in Lubbock and Waco, Paxton’s upcoming El Paso appearance, and Talarico’s remaining stops aim to solidify turnout among Democrats, independents, and crossover Republicans before Nov 3 decides whether Texas will send a Democrat to the Senate for the first time in nearly four decades.