Story perspectives

Democrats target Ohio as Michigan remains only toss-up

By Drooid · Oct 29, 2026 · How we work

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Summary

Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to retake the chamber.
Three of the four Democratic Senate seats are rated safe by Cook.
Michigan is the only Democratic toss-up Senate race on the Cook watch list.
Democrats target Ohio, where President Donald Trump won by 11 points in 2024.
Democrats also eye Iowa, Kansas and North Carolina as pickups, with the latter likely flipping red to blue.

Summary

El-Sayed leads Rogers by about 6 points in a statewide poll, 51.4% to 45.1%.
Among independents, El-Sayed holds 45.5% support versus Rogers’ 40%, per Glengariff poll.
El-Sayed captures 77% of voters under 30 and 59.5% of those in their 30s.
Rogers leads seniors 65+ with 54% and voters aged 40-49 with 57%.
Former Democratic chair Lon Johnson urges Democrats to leave the Senate ballot blank.

History

In the 2006 midterm elections, the Democratic Party seized a Senate majority by netting six seats, creating a 51-49 split that ended over a decade of Republican control. The win followed widespread disapproval of President George W. Bush’s handling of the Iraq war and Hurricane Katrina. Today’s push for four more seats echoes that swing strategy in key battleground states.

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In the 2006 midterm elections, the Democratic Party seized a Senate majority by netting six seats, creating a 51-49 split that ended over a decade of Republican control. The win followed widespread disapproval of President George W. Bush’s handling of the Iraq war and Hurricane Katrina. Today’s push for four more seats echoes that swing strategy in key battleground states.

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