Full Breakdown
Peggy Flanagan Holds Double-Digit Lead Over Trump-Backed Michele Tafoya in Minnesota Senate Race
By Drooid · · How we work
In this breakdown
01
Background & Context
Minnesota’s open Senate seat is contested by Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya, a former football reporter endorsed by former President Donald Trump. The race has become a focal point for national partisan dynamics, as a Tafoya victory would add another Trump-aligned senator to the chamber. Trump, who has lost Minnesota in each of his presidential bids, has repeatedly framed the contest as a test of his influence in the state.
02
Data & Statistics
A poll conducted last week by The New York Times in partnership with Siena University shows Flanagan leading Tafoya by 14 percentage points, a double-digit advantage that has widened in the final week before the election. The survey’s margin places Flanagan well ahead of the Republican challenger as voters evaluate GOP policies that have drawn criticism locally.
Visual evidence
Images from the story
03
Official Statements & Responses
In response to the polling, Trump posted on Truth Social that his administration is “closely ‘watching’” Tafoya’s potential defeat. He warned that any loss would require ballot-related misconduct, suggesting that “the only way she can lose is if they cheat by playing games with the Ballots as they come in.” No evidence of large-scale fraud has been reported in Minnesota or elsewhere.
04
Verbatim Quotes
- “The only way she can lose is if they cheat by playing games with the Ballots as they come in,” — Donald Trump, further distancing president
These elements together illustrate the current standing of the Minnesota Senate contest, the partisan stakes articulated by the former president, and the quantitative gap indicated by the latest polling.