Susan Collins’ Kavanaugh Vote Becomes Central Issue in Maine Senate Race

Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term in Maine’s 2026 Senate race, facing Democratic challenger Troy Jackson. Collins’ 2018 vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh—once portrayed as a “settled-law” pro-choice vote—has resurfaced as a focal point of the campaign, with voters and analysts questioning whether the decision will cost her the seat that could determine control of the U.S. Senate.

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In 2018, Collins joined a bipartisan coalition to confirm Kavanaugh, citing his stated respect for precedent. She asserted that Kavanaugh considered Roe v. Wade settled law. The 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson decision, in which Kavanaugh voted to overturn Roe, shocked Collins and many supporters. The reversal spurred a wave of abortion-rights activism in Maine, a state where abortion remains legal, and has become a recurring line in Democratic ads targeting Collins.

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• Marist University poll (Oct 22-25): Jackson 49 % vs. Collins 47 % (margin ± 6.6 pp).

Marist Poll Shows Troy Jackson Trailing Susan Collins by 2 Points in Maine Senate Race: how 7 outlets framed it

• Suffolk University poll (Oct 8-11): Jackson 49 % vs. Collins 47 % (margin ± 4.4 pp).

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• InsiderAdvantage survey (Oct 13-14): Same 49 %–47 % split (margin ± 2.83 pp).

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• Washington Post/George Mason poll (Sept 30-Oct 5): Jackson ahead 50 %–46 % (margin ± 3.6 pp).

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These polls show a narrow, often Jackson-led, race, echoing the 2020 election where Collins outperformed public surveys.

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Collins told the Portland Press Herald she “does not regret” confirming Kavanaugh but “disagrees with Justice Kavanaugh’s vote” and emphasized her record of supporting other justices who upheld Roe. In a debate, she argued that evaluating nominees should focus on qualifications, not predicted votes.

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Political scientists Mark Brewer (University of Maine) and James Melcher (University of Maine at Farmington) argue the Kavanaugh vote now carries more weight because the justice’s later ruling directly altered abortion law.

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The Maine AFL-CIO, represented by President Cynthia Phinney, criticized Collins for campaigning with former West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, whose private-equity ties they deem harmful to Maine’s economy.

Susan Collins Campaigns with Private Equity Insider Whose Firm Shuttered Paper Mills in Jay, Bucksport

• “She had said Kavanaugh considered Roe to be settled law, and professed shock when he voted as he did.” — James Melcher, University of Maine at Farmington

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• “It is mystifying and insulting that Susan Collins would bring this man to Maine to campaign with her when it is so painfully clear that his private equity firm has exacted so much economic misery on Maine communities, and continues to pursue more opportunities to amass more wealth at the direct expense of Maine families,” — Cynthia Phinney, Maine AFL-CIO

Susan Collins Campaigns with Private Equity Insider Whose Firm Shuttered Paper Mills in Jay, Bucksport

• “Maine families and small businesses are already paying some of the highest electricity costs in the nation,” — Susan Collins

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Polls differ on the size of Jackson’s lead, ranging from a 2-point edge (Marist, Suffolk, InsiderAdvantage) to a 7-point advantage (Echelon Insights). No source provides a definitive measure of how many voters base their decision solely on the Kavanaugh vote, leaving the precise electoral impact uncertain.

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In-person absentee voting began on Oct 5 and will remain open until Oct 29. The race will be decided in the November midterm elections, a contest that analysts label a “toss-up” with potential Senate-control implications. Both campaigns continue to run targeted ads and hold final outreach events as the deadline approaches.

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